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CURRENT
▲-1 → 1 (+2) since open DAL @ GB GB -1 → +1 · Bovada — open DAL @ GB matchup▲6 → 5 (-1) since open BUF @ LV LV +6 → +5 · BetMGM — open BUF @ LV matchup▲-8.5 → -7.5 (+1) since open LAC @ KC KC -8.5 → -7.5 · Bovada — open LAC @ KC matchup
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Model predictions
More pick tools
Sportsbook prices as of Sun, Oct 18, 4:07 PM EDT

Model Track Record

Counts only picks made before kickoff

Every pick on this page was generated before its game started and graded against the final result. Anything recorded after a game settled is excluded, so the record here is real forward performance. A model has no record until it has made picks ahead of upcoming games.

Cover rate by model, sport and market against the −110 break-even (52.38%), built on 17,739 forward picks. New picks are graded nightly.

Well above break-even
8
5+ pts above break-even, n ≥ 30
Well below break-even
58
5+ pts below break-even, n ≥ 30
Leak Suspect
0
20+ pts above break-even (improbable)
Combos
195
model × sport × market
Sport: Market: Min picks:
ModelSport / MarketNRecordCoverCover vs break-evenVerdict
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_rushing_yards252122-130
48.4% n=252 · strong [42.2%–54.6%]
—gap n/a
Model name unavailable
NFL · Spread3114-17
45.2% n=31 · marginal [27.6%–62.7%]
—gap n/a
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_passing_yards5423-31
42.6% n=54 · marginal [29.4%–55.8%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Player RBIs (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_rbis130100-30
76.9% n=130 · strong [69.7%–84.2%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Player Strikeouts (Poisson)
MLB · mlb_player_strikeouts12482-42
66.1% n=124 · strong [57.8%–74.5%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Player Home Runs (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_home_runs311278-33
89.4% n=311 · strong [86.0%–92.8%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Player Strikeouts (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_strikeouts12473-51
58.9% n=124 · strong [50.2%–67.5%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Player Walks (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_walks315166-149
52.7% n=315 · strong [47.2%–58.2%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Player Walks (Poisson)
MLB · mlb_player_walks315213-102
67.6% n=315 · strong [62.5%–72.8%]
—gap n/a
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_receiving_yards558305-253
54.7% n=558 · strong [50.5%–58.8%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Player RBIs (Poisson)
MLB · mlb_player_rbis13099-31
76.2% n=130 · strong [68.8%–83.5%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Player Home Runs (Poisson)
MLB · mlb_player_home_runs311280-31
90.0% n=311 · strong [86.7%–93.4%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Player Hits (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_hits11171-40
64.0% n=111 · strong [55.0%–72.9%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Player Total Bases (Quantile XGB)
MLB · mlb_player_total_bases220148-72
67.3% n=220 · strong [61.1%–73.5%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
MLB · Moneyline9546-49
48.4% n=95 · marginal [38.4%–58.5%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Moneyline (ExtraTrees)
MLB · Moneyline9542-53
44.2% n=95 · marginal [34.2%–54.2%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Run Line (KNN)
MLB · Spread9856-42
57.1% n=98 · marginal [47.3%–66.9%]
—gap n/a
Model name unavailable
NFL · Spread4025-12-3
67.6% n=37 / 40 · marginal [52.5%–82.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread (CatBoost)
NBA · Spread6436-27-1
57.1% n=63 / 64 · marginal [44.9%–69.4%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Moneyline (ExtraTrees)
NBA · Moneyline6734-33
50.7% n=67 · marginal [38.8%–62.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
NBA · Moneyline6730-37
44.8% n=67 · marginal [32.9%–56.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread (Gaussian Process)
NBA · Spread6438-25-1
60.3% n=63 / 64 · marginal [48.2%–72.4%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread Predictor (XGBoost)
NBA · Spread6437-26-1
58.7% n=63 / 64 · marginal [46.6%–70.9%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA ATS XGBoost (Custom Objective)
NBA · Spread6441-22-1
65.1% n=63 / 64 · marginal [53.3%–76.9%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost)
NBA · Spread6436-27-1
57.1% n=63 / 64 · marginal [44.9%–69.4%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Market Efficiency Moneyline (LogReg)
NBA · Moneyline6732-35
47.8% n=67 · marginal [35.8%–59.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
NBA · Moneyline6732-35
47.8% n=67 · marginal [35.8%–59.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Moneyline Classifier (Logistic)
NBA · Moneyline6733-34
49.3% n=67 · marginal [37.3%–61.2%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Cover Probability (XGBoost Classifier)
NBA · Moneyline6730-37
44.8% n=67 · marginal [32.9%–56.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
NBA · Moneyline6733-34
49.3% n=67 · marginal [37.3%–61.2%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Moneyline (TabPFN)
NBA · Moneyline6732-35
47.8% n=67 · marginal [35.8%–59.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread (HistGradientBoosting)
NBA · Spread6441-22-1
65.1% n=63 / 64 · marginal [53.3%–76.9%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Moneyline (Voting Ensemble)
NBA · Moneyline6734-33
50.7% n=67 · marginal [38.8%–62.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA MLP Moneyline
NBA · Moneyline6737-30
55.2% n=67 · marginal [43.3%–67.1%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread Model (LightGBM)
NBA · Spread6437-26-1
58.7% n=63 / 64 · marginal [46.6%–70.9%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Total Points (LightGBM)
NBA · Total6426-38
40.6% n=64 · marginal [28.6%–52.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Total Points (LightGBM)
NBA · Total6426-38
40.6% n=64 · marginal [28.6%–52.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread (SVR)
NBA · Spread6443-20-1
68.3% n=63 / 64 · marginal [56.8%–79.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Moneyline (CatBoost)
NBA · Moneyline6738-29
56.7% n=67 · marginal [44.9%–68.6%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Minimal Signal Moneyline (LogReg)
NBA · Moneyline6732-35
47.8% n=67 · marginal [35.8%–59.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread Model (LightGBM)
NBA · Spread6434-29-1
54.0% n=63 / 64 · marginal [41.7%–66.3%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread (AdaBoost)
NBA · Spread6435-28-1
55.6% n=63 / 64 · marginal [43.3%–67.8%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Total Points Model (XGBoost)
NBA · Total6426-38
40.6% n=64 · marginal [28.6%–52.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread (SVR)
NBA · Spread6443-20-1
68.3% n=63 / 64 · marginal [56.8%–79.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread Predictor (XGBoost)
NBA · Spread6431-32-1
49.2% n=63 / 64 · marginal [36.9%–61.6%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread (KNN)
NBA · Spread6438-25-1
60.3% n=63 / 64 · marginal [48.2%–72.4%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
MLB · Moneyline13072-58
55.4% n=130 · strong [46.8%–63.9%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Spread (MARS)
NBA · Spread6435-28-1
55.6% n=63 / 64 · marginal [43.3%–67.8%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Moneyline (Ridge Classifier)
NBA · Moneyline6732-35
47.8% n=67 · marginal [35.8%–59.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NBA Moneyline (TabPFN)
NBA · Moneyline6930-39
43.5% n=69 · marginal [31.8%–55.2%]
—gap n/a
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_passing_tds7948-31
60.8% n=79 · marginal [50.0%–71.5%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Run Line Model (XGBoost)
MLB · Spread3114-17
45.2% n=31 · marginal [27.6%–62.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NHL Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
NHL · Moneyline19981-118
40.7% n=199 · strong [33.9%–47.5%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NHL Puck Line (KNN)
NHL · Spread3722-15
59.5% n=37 · marginal [43.6%–75.3%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Run Line (HistGradientBoosting)
MLB · Spread15982-75-2
52.2% n=157 / 159 · strong [44.4%–60.0%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] CFB Moneyline Classifier (Logistic Regression)
CFB · Moneyline179109-70
60.9% n=179 · strong [53.7%–68.0%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Moneyline (Ridge Classifier)
MLB · Moneyline16897-71
57.7% n=168 · strong [50.3%–65.2%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Run Line (KNN)
MLB · Spread15989-68-2
56.7% n=157 / 159 · strong [48.9%–64.4%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] CFB Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
CFB · Moneyline179108-71
60.3% n=179 · strong [53.2%–67.5%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] CFB Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
CFB · Moneyline179111-68
62.0% n=179 · strong [54.9%–69.1%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Moneyline (CatBoost)
MLB · Moneyline16291-71
56.2% n=162 · strong [48.5%–63.8%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
MLB · Moneyline16283-79
51.2% n=162 · strong [43.5%–58.9%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
MLB · Moneyline16294-68
58.0% n=162 · strong [50.4%–65.6%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NHL Moneyline (ExtraTrees)
NHL · Moneyline199103-96
51.8% n=199 · strong [44.8%–58.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Moneyline Predictor (XGBoost)
MLB · Moneyline16294-68
58.0% n=162 · strong [50.4%–65.6%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] CFB Moneyline (CatBoost)
CFB · Moneyline179112-67
62.6% n=179 · strong [55.5%–69.7%]
—gap n/a
Model name unavailable
NHL · Moneyline4427-17
61.4% n=44 · marginal [47.0%–75.8%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NHL Moneyline (CatBoost)
NHL · Moneyline199116-83
58.3% n=199 · strong [51.4%–65.1%]
—gap n/a
Model name unavailable
NHL · Spread12577-48
61.6% n=125 · strong [53.1%–70.1%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Run Total (LightGBM)
MLB · Total15984-67-8
55.6% n=151 / 159 · strong [47.7%–63.6%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NHL Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
NHL · Moneyline199118-81
59.3% n=199 · strong [52.5%–66.1%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Moneyline SHAP Analysis (XGBoost)
MLB · Moneyline3217-15
53.1% n=32 · marginal [35.8%–70.4%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Moneyline Predictor (XGBoost)
MLB · Moneyline16293-69
57.4% n=162 · strong [49.8%–65.0%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NHL Puck Line Model (LightGBM)
NHL · Spread3722-15
59.5% n=37 · marginal [43.6%–75.3%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NHL Moneyline Classifier (Random Forest)
NHL · Moneyline199118-81
59.3% n=199 · strong [52.5%–66.1%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NHL Goal Total (XGBoost)
NHL · Total3715-21-1
41.7% n=36 / 37 · marginal [25.6%–57.8%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Run Line (MARS)
MLB · Spread15981-76-2
51.6% n=157 / 159 · strong [43.8%–59.4%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] CFB Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
CFB · Moneyline179101-78
56.4% n=179 · strong [49.2%–63.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Moneyline (TabPFN)
MLB · Moneyline16293-69
57.4% n=162 · strong [49.8%–65.0%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NHL Goal Total (XGBoost)
NHL · Total3714-22-1
38.9% n=36 / 37 · marginal [23.0%–54.8%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Moneyline (ExtraTrees)
MLB · Moneyline16294-68
58.0% n=162 · strong [50.4%–65.6%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] CFB Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
CFB · Moneyline179101-78
56.4% n=179 · strong [49.2%–63.7%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] MLB Run Total (LightGBM)
MLB · Total15982-69-8
54.3% n=151 / 159 · strong [46.4%–62.3%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] CFB Moneyline Classifier (Logistic Regression)
CFB · Moneyline179109-70
60.9% n=179 · strong [53.7%–68.0%]
—gap n/a
Model name unavailable
NHL · Total7942-36-1
53.8% n=78 / 79 · marginal [42.8%–64.9%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NHL Puck Line (MARS)
NHL · Spread3722-15
59.5% n=37 · marginal [43.6%–75.3%]
—gap n/a
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_interceptions5529-26
52.7% n=55 · marginal [39.5%–65.9%]
—gap n/a
Model name unavailable
NFL · player_receptions505287-218
56.8% n=505 · strong [52.5%–61.2%]
—gap n/a
[Auto] NFL ML Stacking (Calibrated)
NFL · Moneyline6443-21
67.2% n=64 · marginal [55.7%–78.7%]
+13.7ptsAbove break-even
[Auto] NFL ML Stacking (Calibrated)
NFL · Moneyline6039-21
65.0% n=60 · marginal [52.9%–77.1%]
+11.1ptsAbove break-even
[Auto] NFL Spread (MARS)
NFL · Spread4931-18
63.3% n=49 · marginal [49.8%–76.8%]
+10.9ptsAbove break-even
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (Logistic Regression)
NFL · Moneyline7948-31
60.8% n=79 · marginal [50.0%–71.5%]
+8.8ptsAbove break-even
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (XGBoost Classifier)
NFL · Moneyline5931-28
52.5% n=59 · marginal [39.8%–65.3%]
+7.8ptsAbove break-even
[Auto] NFL Spread (MARS)
NFL · Spread6435-24-5
59.3% n=59 / 64 · marginal [46.8%–71.9%]
+6.9ptsAbove break-even
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (Logistic Regression)
NFL · Moneyline7945-34
57.0% n=79 · marginal [46.0%–67.9%]
+6.9ptsAbove break-even
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (Random Forest)
NFL · Moneyline6031-29
51.7% n=60 · marginal [39.0%–64.3%]
+6.5ptsAbove break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread7038-29-3
56.7% n=67 / 70 · marginal [44.9%–68.6%]
+4.4ptsSlightly above
[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost)
NFL · Spread6134-27
55.7% n=61 · marginal [43.3%–68.2%]
+3.4ptsSlightly above
[Auto] NFL Spread (SVR)
NFL · Spread6533-27-5
55.0% n=60 / 65 · marginal [42.4%–67.6%]
+2.7ptsSlightly above
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Total (XGB)
NFL · Total6234-28
54.8% n=62 · marginal [42.5%–67.2%]
+2.4ptsSlightly above
[Auto] NFL Spread (ExtraTrees)
NFL · Spread6030-25-5
54.5% n=55 / 60 · marginal [41.4%–67.7%]
+2.2ptsSlightly above
[Auto] NFL Online SGD ML
NFL · Moneyline6128-33
45.9% n=61 · marginal [33.4%–58.4%]
+1.8ptsflat
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (Ridge Classifier)
NFL · Moneyline6031-29
51.7% n=60 · marginal [39.0%–64.3%]
+1.8ptsflat
[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Spread (XGBoost)
NFL · Spread7035-30-5
53.8% n=65 / 70 · marginal [41.7%–66.0%]
+1.6ptsflat
[Auto] NFL Spread (KNN)
NFL · Spread6230-26-6
53.6% n=56 / 62 · marginal [40.5%–66.6%]
+1.3ptsflat
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (XGBoost Classifier)
NFL · Moneyline6330-33
47.6% n=63 · marginal [35.3%–60.0%]
+1.1ptsflat
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (XGB)
NFL · Spread6533-29-3
53.2% n=62 / 65 · marginal [40.8%–65.6%]
+0.8ptsflat
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (Stacking Ensemble)
NFL · Spread5929-26-4
52.7% n=55 / 59 · marginal [39.5%–65.9%]
+0.4ptsflat
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Game Total Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Total8042-38
52.5% n=80 · marginal [41.6%–63.4%]
+0.2ptsflat
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Game Total Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Total8042-38
52.5% n=80 · marginal [41.6%–63.4%]
+0.2ptsflat
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread6129-27-5
51.8% n=56 / 61 · marginal [38.7%–64.9%]
-0.6ptsflat
[Auto] NFL ATS XGBoost (Custom Objective)
NFL · Spread6732-30-5
51.6% n=62 / 67 · marginal [39.2%–64.1%]
-0.7ptsflat
[Auto] NFL Cover Probability (Random Forest)
NFL · Moneyline6328-35
44.4% n=63 · marginal [32.2%–56.7%]
-0.8ptsflat
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Spread (Stacking Ensemble)
NFL · Spread6031-29
51.7% n=60 · marginal [39.0%–64.3%]
-0.8ptsflat
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Total (XGB)
NFL · Total4523-22
51.1% n=45 · marginal [36.5%–65.7%]
-1.1ptsflat
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Game Total Model (XGB)
NFL · Total4523-22
51.1% n=45 · marginal [36.5%–65.7%]
-1.1ptsflat
Model name unavailable
NFL · Moneyline3724-13
64.9% n=37 · marginal [49.5%–80.2%]
-1.2ptsflat
[Auto] NFL Spread (HistGradientBoosting)
NFL · Spread6329-28-6
50.9% n=57 / 63 · marginal [37.9%–63.9%]
-1.6ptsflat
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Total (XGB)
NFL · Total7136-35
50.7% n=71 · marginal [39.1%–62.3%]
-1.6ptsflat
[Auto] NFL Spread Stacking
NFL · Spread6131-30
50.8% n=61 · marginal [38.3%–63.4%]
-1.7ptsflat
[Auto] NFL Spread (KNN)
NFL · Spread5930-29
50.8% n=59 · marginal [38.1%–63.6%]
-1.7ptsflat
[Auto] NFL Spread (SVR)
NFL · Spread7739-38
50.6% n=77 · marginal [39.5%–61.8%]
-1.8ptsflat
[Auto] NFL GNN Matchup
NFL · Spread6131-30
50.8% n=61 · marginal [38.3%–63.4%]
-1.8ptsflat
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts)
NFL · Spread6030-30
50.0% n=60 · marginal [37.3%–62.7%]
-2.2ptsSlightly below
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Game Total Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Total8040-40
50.0% n=80 · marginal [39.0%–61.0%]
-2.3ptsSlightly below
[Auto] NFL Spread Stacking
NFL · Spread7032-32-6
50.0% n=64 / 70 · marginal [37.8%–62.3%]
-2.4ptsSlightly below
[Auto] NFL GNN Matchup
NFL · Spread6128-28-5
50.0% n=56 / 61 · marginal [36.9%–63.1%]
-2.4ptsSlightly below
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (XGB)
NFL · Spread6731-32-4
49.2% n=63 / 67 · marginal [36.9%–61.6%]
-3.1ptsSlightly below
[Auto] NFL ATS XGBoost (Custom Objective)
NFL · Spread6130-31
49.2% n=61 · marginal [36.6%–61.7%]
-3.1ptsSlightly below
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (Ridge Classifier)
NFL · Moneyline5928-31
47.5% n=59 · marginal [34.7%–60.2%]
-3.2ptsSlightly below
[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline6636-30
54.5% n=66 · marginal [42.5%–66.6%]
-3.2ptsSlightly below
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts)
NFL · Spread6130-31
49.2% n=61 · marginal [36.6%–61.7%]
-3.4ptsSlightly below
[Auto] NFL Spread (AdaBoost)
NFL · Spread6428-30-6
48.3% n=58 / 64 · marginal [35.4%–61.1%]
-4.1ptsSlightly below
Model name unavailable
NFL · Total5928-31
47.5% n=59 · marginal [34.7%–60.2%]
-4.6ptsSlightly below
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM)
NFL · Spread6830-33-5
47.6% n=63 / 68 · marginal [35.3%–60.0%]
-4.7ptsSlightly below
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Game Total Model (XGB)
NFL · Total6330-33
47.6% n=63 · marginal [35.3%–60.0%]
-4.7ptsSlightly below
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (Mixture of Experts)
NFL · Spread6026-29-5
47.3% n=55 / 60 · marginal [34.1%–60.5%]
-5.0ptsSlightly below
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Feature Store Spread Model (XGB)
NFL · Spread4521-24
46.7% n=45 · marginal [32.1%–61.2%]
-5.4ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Full Feature Spread (XGB)
NFL · Spread4521-24
46.7% n=45 · marginal [32.1%–61.2%]
-5.4ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Momentum Spread Model (XGB)
NFL · Spread4521-24
46.7% n=45 · marginal [32.1%–61.2%]
-5.5ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread8037-42-1
46.8% n=79 / 80 · marginal [35.8%–57.8%]
-5.5ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Minimal Signal Spread (XGBoost)
NFL · Spread6528-32-5
46.7% n=60 / 65 · marginal [34.0%–59.3%]
-5.6ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (XGB)
NFL · Spread6628-32-6
46.7% n=60 / 66 · marginal [34.0%–59.3%]
-5.7ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL MLP Spread
NFL · Spread6327-31-5
46.6% n=58 / 63 · marginal [33.7%–59.4%]
-5.9ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Elo Power Ratings Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline6030-30
50.0% n=60 · marginal [37.3%–62.7%]
-6.3ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Spread (Gaussian Process)
NFL · Spread6128-33
45.9% n=61 · marginal [33.4%–58.4%]
-6.3ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL MLP Spread
NFL · Spread6128-33
45.9% n=61 · marginal [33.4%–58.4%]
-6.4ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread8036-43-1
45.6% n=79 / 80 · marginal [34.6%–56.6%]
-6.7ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM)
NFL · Spread8036-43-1
45.6% n=79 / 80 · marginal [34.6%–56.6%]
-6.8ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread8036-43-1
45.6% n=79 / 80 · marginal [34.6%–56.6%]
-6.9ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Market Efficiency Spread (XGBoost)
NFL · Spread6326-32-5
44.8% n=58 / 63 · marginal [32.0%–57.6%]
-7.5ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Multi-Task Spread
NFL · Spread6928-35-6
44.4% n=63 / 69 · marginal [32.2%–56.7%]
-7.8ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Spread (Gaussian Process)
NFL · Spread6627-34-5
44.3% n=61 / 66 · marginal [31.8%–56.7%]
-8.0ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Spread (ExtraTrees)
NFL · Spread6127-34
44.3% n=61 · marginal [31.8%–56.7%]
-8.1ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Momentum Spread Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread6127-34
44.3% n=61 · marginal [31.8%–56.7%]
-8.2ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Spread (CatBoost)
NFL · Spread6127-34
44.3% n=61 · marginal [31.8%–56.7%]
-8.2ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread6828-36-4
43.8% n=64 / 68 · marginal [31.6%–55.9%]
-8.4ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Full Feature Spread (Stacking Ensemble)
NFL · Spread6225-32-5
43.9% n=57 / 62 · marginal [31.0%–56.7%]
-8.4ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Online SGD ML
NFL · Moneyline5923-36
39.0% n=59 · marginal [26.5%–51.4%]
-8.8ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Minimal Signal Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline6024-36
40.0% n=60 · marginal [27.6%–52.4%]
-10.1ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread7128-39-4
41.8% n=67 / 71 · marginal [30.0%–53.6%]
-10.5ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Multi-Task Spread
NFL · Spread6125-36
41.0% n=61 · marginal [28.6%–53.3%]
-11.4ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Spread (HistGradientBoosting)
NFL · Spread6125-36
41.0% n=61 · marginal [28.6%–53.3%]
-11.4ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread8032-47-1
40.5% n=79 / 80 · marginal [29.7%–51.3%]
-11.8ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Market Efficiency Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline6424-40
37.5% n=64 · marginal [25.6%–49.4%]
-12.4ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Bayesian)
NFL · Spread6123-35-3
39.7% n=58 / 61 · marginal [27.1%–52.2%]
-12.5ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Turnover Regression Model (ElasticNet)
NFL · Spread6124-37
39.3% n=61 · marginal [27.1%–51.6%]
-12.9ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM)
NFL · Spread6124-37
39.3% n=61 · marginal [27.1%–51.6%]
-13.1ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread8031-48-1
39.2% n=79 / 80 · marginal [28.5%–50.0%]
-13.1ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Bayesian)
NFL · Spread6222-35-5
38.6% n=57 / 62 · marginal [26.0%–51.2%]
-13.7ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Spread (AdaBoost)
NFL · Spread6123-38
37.7% n=61 · marginal [25.5%–49.9%]
-14.5ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Pressure & Efficiency Model (LightGBM)
NFL · Spread6123-38
37.7% n=61 · marginal [25.5%–49.9%]
-14.6ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Bayesian)
NFL · Spread6123-38
37.7% n=61 · marginal [25.5%–49.9%]
-14.7ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Playbook (Py): SHAP Explainable Elo Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread6123-38
37.7% n=61 · marginal [25.5%–49.9%]
-14.7ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Moneyline Model (Logistic Regression)
NFL · Moneyline7928-51
35.4% n=79 · marginal [24.9%–46.0%]
-15.7ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Moneyline Model (Logistic Regression)
NFL · Moneyline7928-51
35.4% n=79 · marginal [24.9%–46.0%]
-15.7ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Moneyline Model (Random Forest)
NFL · Moneyline7928-51
35.4% n=79 · marginal [24.9%–46.0%]
-16.1ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (CatBoost)
NFL · Moneyline6019-41
31.7% n=60 · marginal [19.9%–43.4%]
-16.3ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (ExtraTrees)
NFL · Moneyline5920-39
33.9% n=59 · marginal [21.8%–46.0%]
-16.4ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Simple Elo Spread Model (Linear)
NFL · Spread6122-39
36.1% n=61 · marginal [24.0%–48.1%]
-16.4ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Sharkie Starter: NFL Spread
NFL · Spread6122-39
36.1% n=61 · marginal [24.0%–48.1%]
-16.5ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (Voting Ensemble)
NFL · Moneyline6520-45
30.8% n=65 · marginal [19.5%–42.0%]
-17.9ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL MLP Moneyline
NFL · Moneyline6420-44
31.3% n=64 · marginal [19.9%–42.6%]
-18.6ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (TabPFN)
NFL · Moneyline7925-54
31.6% n=79 · marginal [21.4%–41.9%]
-18.8ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Market Efficiency Spread (XGBoost)
NFL · Spread4515-30
33.3% n=45 · marginal [19.6%–47.1%]
-18.9ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Minimal Signal Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline5919-40
32.2% n=59 · marginal [20.3%–44.1%]
-18.9ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Blueprint (Py): Moneyline Model (Random Forest)
NFL · Moneyline6419-45
29.7% n=64 · marginal [18.5%–40.9%]
-19.2ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (TabPFN)
NFL · Moneyline6019-41
31.7% n=60 · marginal [19.9%–43.4%]
-19.6ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL MLP Moneyline
NFL · Moneyline6019-41
31.7% n=60 · marginal [19.9%–43.4%]
-19.7ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (ExtraTrees)
NFL · Moneyline6019-41
31.7% n=60 · marginal [19.9%–43.4%]
-19.7ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Market Efficiency Moneyline (LogReg)
NFL · Moneyline6019-41
31.7% n=60 · marginal [19.9%–43.4%]
-19.7ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Moneyline Model (Logistic Regression)
NFL · Moneyline6019-41
31.7% n=60 · marginal [19.9%–43.4%]
-19.7ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Minimal Signal Spread (XGBoost)
NFL · Spread4514-31
31.1% n=45 · marginal [17.6%–44.6%]
-21.2ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] Playbook (Py): Moneyline Model (Random Forest)
NFL · Moneyline6017-43
28.3% n=60 · marginal [16.9%–39.7%]
-22.0ptsBelow break-even
[Auto] NFL Moneyline (Voting Ensemble)
NFL · Moneyline6017-43
28.3% n=60 · marginal [16.9%–39.7%]
-23.2ptsBelow break-even

Methodology: cover rate = wins / (wins + losses), pushes excluded. Cover vs break-even = cover rate − 52.38% (the break-even rate for a −110 standard payout), in points. All rows cover every graded pick to date; latest grade: 2026-10-18. Refreshed nightly after games are graded.