Insights · NFL

What happened. What we learned.

Every graded pick, wins and losses, in one place. Read the record beside the proof, then see which angles held up.

What's working this month

Lenses that beat the others' hit rate this month, by market condition. Each has at least 50 graded picks.

Public Fade overall

Lift vs other lenses: +15.5%
95% CI: +3.7% to +25.6%
n: 74

Divisional Primetime Combo overall

Lift vs other lenses: +6.6%
95% CI: −1.6% to +14.4%
n: 152

Contrarian overall

Lift vs other lenses: +5.1%
95% CI: −8.1% to +17.4%
n: 60

Home Dog Primetime overall

Lift vs other lenses: +4.4%
95% CI: −3.3% to +11.8%
n: 174

Wind Under overall

Lift vs other lenses: +3.7%
95% CI: −4.7% to +11.8%
n: 144

Steam Move overall

Lift vs other lenses: +3.5%
95% CI: −8.0% to +14.5%
n: 77

Modeler overall

Lift vs other lenses: +3.2%
95% CI: −9.9% to +15.7%
n: 60

Divisional Dog overall

Lift vs other lenses: +3.1%
95% CI: −2.8% to +8.8%
n: 300

Prime Time Under overall

Lift vs other lenses: +2.9%
95% CI: −3.0% to +8.7%
n: 300

Line Value overall

Lift vs other lenses: +2.2%
95% CI: −3.7% to +8.1%
n: 300

Rest Edge overall

Lift vs other lenses: +1.9%
95% CI: −4.1% to +7.7%
n: 300

Primetime Dog overall

Lift vs other lenses: +1.6%
95% CI: −4.3% to +7.5%
n: 300

Short Week Both Sides Total overall

Lift vs other lenses: +0.2%
95% CI: −8.5% to +8.8%
n: 128

Lens	Market condition	Lift vs other lenses	95% CI	n
Public Fade	overall	+15.5%	+3.7% to +25.6%	74
Divisional Primetime Combo	overall	+6.6%	−1.6% to +14.4%	152
Contrarian	overall	+5.1%	−8.1% to +17.4%	60
Home Dog Primetime	overall	+4.4%	−3.3% to +11.8%	174
Wind Under	overall	+3.7%	−4.7% to +11.8%	144
Steam Move	overall	+3.5%	−8.0% to +14.5%	77
Modeler	overall	+3.2%	−9.9% to +15.7%	60
Divisional Dog	overall	+3.1%	−2.8% to +8.8%	300
Prime Time Under	overall	+2.9%	−3.0% to +8.7%	300
Line Value	overall	+2.2%	−3.7% to +8.1%	300
Rest Edge	overall	+1.9%	−4.1% to +7.7%	300
Primetime Dog	overall	+1.6%	−4.3% to +7.5%	300
Short Week Both Sides Total	overall	+0.2%	−8.5% to +8.8%	128

Not working this month

Lenses that trailed the others' hit rate this month, with at least 50 graded picks each.

Model Market Gap overall

Lift vs other lenses: −18.3%
95% CI: −29.0% to −5.6%
n: 61

Model Edge overall

Lift vs other lenses: −14.6%
95% CI: −27.1% to −0.1%
n: 52

ML Divisional Dog overall

Lift vs other lenses: −11.0%
95% CI: −16.7% to −5.2%
n: 300

Sharp overall

Lift vs other lenses: −7.8%
95% CI: −20.2% to +5.3%
n: 60

Splits Divergence overall

Lift vs other lenses: −6.8%
95% CI: −20.1% to +7.4%
n: 51

Sharp Vs Public overall

Lift vs other lenses: −6.8%
95% CI: −20.1% to +7.4%
n: 51

QB Out overall

Lift vs other lenses: −5.2%
95% CI: −14.3% to +4.3%
n: 113

Cold Weather Late Season Total overall

Lift vs other lenses: −3.8%
95% CI: −14.3% to +6.8%
n: 86

ATS Streak Regression overall

Lift vs other lenses: +0.0%
95% CI: −5.9% to +5.9%
n: 300

Lens	Market condition	Lift vs other lenses	95% CI	n
Model Market Gap	overall	−18.3%	−29.0% to −5.6%	61
Model Edge	overall	−14.6%	−27.1% to −0.1%	52
ML Divisional Dog	overall	−11.0%	−16.7% to −5.2%	300
Sharp	overall	−7.8%	−20.2% to +5.3%	60
Splits Divergence	overall	−6.8%	−20.1% to +7.4%	51
Sharp Vs Public	overall	−6.8%	−20.1% to +7.4%	51
QB Out	overall	−5.2%	−14.3% to +4.3%	113
Cold Weather Late Season Total	overall	−3.8%	−14.3% to +6.8%	86
ATS Streak Regression	overall	+0.0%	−5.9% to +5.9%	300

Receipts · NFL

8548

as of Oct 18

67.6%

25-12-3 · NFL ATS, last 90 days · n=37 decided · cover baseline 50.0%

as of Oct 18

Live picks · last 90 days · n=37 · through Oct 18, 1:08 PM ET

—

CLV accrues from August 31, 2026. CLV measured on 7,730 of 114,160 graded picks; the rest carry no pick-time price and are excluded rather than counted as zero.

as of Oct 18

38%

Share of the 7,730 picks with a closing-line measurement.

as of Oct 18

25-12

67.6%

NFL ATS, last 90 days

n=37

Live picks · last 90 days · n=37 · through Oct 18, 1:08 PM ET

Open share card Post

<iframe src="https://sharksnip.com/insights/receipts/share?sport=nfl&h=1eae772dfcff7bda" width="100%" height="260" style="border:0;border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden" title="House receipts share card — Shark Snip" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Cleared the cover baseline. A spread play must win above 50.0% to beat the coin flip. This record wins 67.6% ATS across 37 decided spread plays.

n=8548 graded plays · last graded game Oct 18, 1:08 PM ET

Build from these receipts →

Cumulative settled-result trend

13-4 (76.5% ATS)

17 settled picks

25-12 · 67.6% · NFL ATS, last 90 days · n=37

The line counts the newest 17 of 37 graded picks. Each win moves it up one step and each loss down one step. It is a record of past results, not a promise.

Live picks · last 90 days · n=37 · through Oct 18, 1:08 PM ET

small n · n=37

The plain numbers

25–12

Record, n=37

67.6%

Hit rate on spread picks, n=37

38%

Share of n=7,730 picks that beat the closing line

Early sample · 37 of 50 plays. Too few graded picks to read as a trend.

NFL ATS, last 90 days· 3 pushes, not in the record

Last 20 picks: 13 wins, 4 losses. Tall bar = win, short red bar = loss.

13-4 · 76%

last 20 settled picks · n=17

Longest losing run in these 20: 2

Live picks · last 90 days · n=37 · through Oct 16, 12:08 AM ET

Last graded pick Oct 16, 12:08 AM ET

Where the house loses · Residual angle

Every graded spread play split into disjoint side x line-size slices; up to three furthest below the house baseline, with no winning slice substituted.

Road favourites · under 3

n=123 · −38.8 pts vs baseline

8.1%

Sign in to exclude from your tail
Road underdogs · under 3

n=274 · −15.9 pts vs baseline

31.0%

Sign in to exclude from your tail
Home underdogs · 3-6.5

n=729 · −11.6 pts vs baseline

35.4%

Sign in to exclude from your tail

Baseline 46.9% ATS on n=4,071 decided · as of Oct 18

Too few picks to rank (under 100 decided): Home favourites · 7+ n=31 · Road favourites · 7+ n=4

Market movement · biggest movers

How the lines for the next games moved over the last 24 hours, ranked by the biggest move on the spread (or the total, then the moneyline, when a game has no spread history).

DAL @ GB

Home spread

-1.1 → -0.3 (+0.8) · Toward DAL
NE @ CHI

Home spread

-2.3 → -1.5 (+0.8) · Toward NE
PIT @ NO

Home spread

1.6 → 2.3 (+0.6) · Toward PIT
BUF @ LV

Home spread

4.8 → 5.3 (+0.5) · Toward BUF
CLE @ TEN

Home spread

2 → 1.5 (-0.5) · Toward TEN
IND @ MIN

Home spread

-4.9 → -5.3 (-0.4) · Toward MIN

6 of 16 upcoming games shown, ranked by size of move, last 24 hours· latest line recorded Oct 18, 3:07 PM ET

Lift across 22 lenses

Each dot is a lens. Right of zero beat the other lenses; left of zero did worse. The line through each dot is its 95% range, so a line that crosses zero is inside the noise.

Public Fade n=74
Divisional Primetime Combo n=152
Contrarian n=60
Home Dog Primetime n=174
Wind Under n=144
Steam Move n=77
Modeler n=60
Divisional Dog n=300
Prime Time Under n=300
Line Value n=300
Rest Edge n=300
Primetime Dog n=300
Short Week Both Sides Total n=128
ATS Streak Regression n=300
Cold Weather Late Season Total n=86
QB Out n=113
Splits Divergence n=51
Sharp Vs Public n=51
Sharp n=60
ML Divisional Dog n=300
Model Edge n=52
Model Market Gap n=61

Lift is in points of hit rate against the other lenses. n per lens: 51 to 300 graded signals. As of Oct 18, 2:41 PM ET.

What held up, and what did not

The lenses holding up best and the ones trailing most this month.

Ahead of the others · overall