Insights · NFL
Every graded pick, wins and losses, in one place. Read the record beside the proof, then see which angles held up.
No lens has graded claims yet
Lens calibration counts only graded calls whose confidence was recorded before kickoff. None have graded yet, so each lens has 0 claims. It fills in as calls grade.
Waiting for graded picks
No graded pick with a pre-kickoff confidence is on record for this scope yet.
No graded ATS spread calibration yet
The season record above counts every graded pick. This chart counts only graded picks whose confidence was recorded before kickoff, and none of those have graded yet. It fills in as they grade.
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See ProInsights · real claim grader
Every pundit claim in the transcript corpus, typed and graded against what actually happened. Who has been right, who has enough evidence to judge, and where the observed field sits against the house sample and fade gates.
25 decided grades across 2 real sources · all-time window · small samples are labeled as such. Coverage: top-decile and quadrant labels describe only the currently graded field, not ungraded or unresolved calls.
Claims graded as of Oct 17, 3:54 AM ET · Source registry as of Oct 13, 3:15 AM ET
newest 6 decided claims · same rows as the ledger
| Claim | Source | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| “The Falcons somehow win primetime games this season” | Jeffrey · Oct 9 | wrong |
| “but I'm still gonna pick the Ravens.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | wrong |
| “I'm gonna pick the Bills.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | correct |
| “I still think that the Rams have a better chance because of their consistency.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | wrong |
| “I still think the Jets would be able to win.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | correct |
| “I'm gonna pick the Browns.” | Ben Solak (The Football Show) · Oct 29 | wrong |
Decided, transcript-backed calls by real source. Pushes and unresolved claims never enter the hit-rate denominator.
| Source | W-L | Hit % | n | Window | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Solak (The Football Show) | 14-10 | 58.3% | 24 | all-time | hot |
| early — not enough graded claims (1 sources) | 0-1 | 0.0% | 1 | all-time | unproven |
25 decided grades across 2 real sources · all-time window
Coverage: sources with n≤4 are collapsed into the early row; their grades remain in its W-L and n.
Verdict rules: unproven below n=20; gasbag below 45% after the gate; hot is the top decile of the gated field. With a thin gated field, hot is field-relative coverage, not a claim about ungraded calls.
More decided claims move right; a higher correct/wrong hit rate moves up. Every dot is a directly labeled real source.
Coverage: 1 early sources are collapsed in the ledger and omitted here.
Counterfactual boundary: the guide lines classify observed grades only; they do not infer how a source would have performed on unresolved or unmade calls.
