Sportsbook prices as of Sun, Oct 18, 3:07 PM EDT

NFL matchup · Week 6

BUF at LV. One game, all of it.

The pick, every available price, player props, injuries, and what matters before kickoff.

Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET KICK IN 00:37:39 Pregame board

AwayBUF

HomeLV

Our pick

BUF at LV · 1 pick: 1 play

A play clears our confidence bar and carries the best book price. Any other pick is the model's side on a game with no play: it has no price. Tap a row for the why.

? · what this block is

tonight table

What

One matchup card per game on the slate, three stacked facts: the side the model likes and its confidence, its total read the same way, and up to 3 player-prop reads ranked by confidence — plus the house play and its best captured price underneath.

Why it is here

The whole slate in one glance, with the NO PLAYs shown so you know we looked.

Example (illustrative rows, not measured)

Play	Game	Side	Total	Top props	Best price
NE −2.5	SEA @ NE · Thu 8:20 PM ET	confidence 62/100 · Model side: NE −2.5 ▮▮▮	confidence 55/100 · Model side: Over 47.5 ▮	Metcalf Rec yds O68.5 · confidence 66/100	−108 DK at −2.5
OVER 44.5	KC @ LAC · Sun 4:25 PM ET	no side published yet	confidence 57/100 · Model side: Over 47.5 ▮	(no props block: no prop pick published yet)	−105 Pinnacle at 44.5

Pick	Game	Model	Best price
Under 53.5	BUF @ LV Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET	confidence 65/100 Model side: Under 53.5 UND OVR Side BUF LV 70.9% to win · Model side: BUF ML Total UND OVR confidence 65/100 · Model side: Under 53.5 Top props Kirk Cousins Passing tds over 1.5 confidence 74/100 Kirk Cousins Interceptions over 0.5 confidence 70/100 Josh Allen Passing tds under 1.5 confidence 58/100	−107BetRiversat 53.5captured Oct 18, 2:57 PM ET

Model = a confidence out of 100 on a spread or total. It ranks plays. It is not a win chance. On a moneyline it is the model’s win chance. Best price = the best captured book price at the pick’s own line. With no book quote it shows the price at pick time, or a dash. A pick with no price shows the model’s side. n=1 games · as of Oct 18, 3:41 PM ET

Pick strength: confidence 65/100
Best price: −107BetRivers; at 53.5 · captured Oct 18, 2:57 PM ET

Prices by book

BetRivers−107 BEST PRICE
BetMGM−108
DraftKings−108
FanDuel−110

See book prices

Prices as of Oct 18, 3:07 PM ET.

Board as of Oct 18, 3:41 PM ET.

What changed since this pick

Pick may be stale: Ed Oliver is out for BUF. This pick needs a review. (Oct 18, 3:45 PM ET)

Backs the pick

Oct 17, 3:00 PM ET Las Vegas Raiders: I think the Raiders, what you're seeing is they're coming back to earth a little bit. They're getting only so much they can get out of Brock Bowers, and Kirk Cousins, and Clint Kub…
Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Josh Palmer (WR, BUF): Questionableunsure
Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET DJ Moore (WR, BUF): Questionable
Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, LV): Out
Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Carter Runyon (TE, LV): Out

Also new

Oct 17, 3:00 PM ET Buffalo Bills: The last four o'clock game is Bills at Raiders. Now, the Bills probably should have lost to the Rams, but they're 4-1.
Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET T.J. Sanders (DE, BUF): Questionable
Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Dee Alford (CB, BUF): Questionable
Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Ed Oliver (DE, BUF): Questionable
Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Trey Zuhn III (C, LV): Questionable
Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Tonka Hemingway (DT, LV): Out
Oct 18, 2:55 PM ET Most of the betting money is on BUF
Oct 18, 3:45 PM ET Ed Oliver is out for BUF. This pick needs a review.
Oct 18, 3:45 PM ET DJ Moore is out for BUF. This pick needs a review.
Oct 18, 3:45 PM ET Tonka Hemingway is out for LV. This pick needs a review.

Checked Oct 18, 3:47 PM ET

Record on similar games

No record is posted for games like this one. It appears here once enough finished games of the same kind have been graded.

Live win chance

Live win chance starts at kickoff and updates each minute while the game is in play.

Lines: every available book, open to now

Every market

last good as of Oct 18, 3:37 PM ET

Market	Line now	House side	Basis	Fair price
Spread	LV +5	No play· leans BUF ML	70.9% to win	—
Total	O/U 54	Under 53.5	confidence 65/100	—
Moneyline	BUF -238 · LV +190	No play	—	LV 32.9% · BUF 67.1%

Fair price is each side's chance implied by the books' prices, with the books' built-in margin taken out. Prices as of Oct 18, 3:07 PM ET.

BUF moneyline -238 · 67.5% fair

LV moneyline +195 · 32.5% fair

Odds movement

LV spread: first line in this chart +4.5, latest +5 (the median of 11 books).

last good as of Oct 18, 3:07 PM ET

Spread: +4.5 to +5 (11 books)

Home spread

consensus

n=37 · 35h

First captured 4.5 → Latest 5 (+0.5)

Possible reason: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, LV): Out · Injury report · Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET

Total: 53.5 to 54 (11 books)

Game total

consensus

n=37 · 35h

First captured 53.5 → Latest 54 (+0.5)

No clear reason found

Median of the books quoting in each hour, last 36 hours.

Every book

last good as of Oct 18, 3:37 PM ET

Book	Home spread	Total	Home moneyline	Away moneyline
Betfair ExBEST PRICE	— —	53.5 o-104 u+102	+210	-217
BetMGM	— —	53.5 o-110 u-108	+195	-235
DraftKings	— —	53.5 o-112 u-108	+195	-238
FanDuel	— —	53.5 o-110 u-110	+200	-245
KalshiBEST PRICE	+4.5 -100	53.5 o-104 u-100	+212	-223
NovigBEST PRICE	+4.5 +104	53.5 o-106 u+104	+212	-217
PolymarketBEST PRICE	+4.5 +104	— o— u—	+212	-223
Polymarket UsBEST PRICE	+4.5 +102	53.5 o-106 u+104	+212	-215

8 of 88All 88 books · Newest quote Oct 18, 3:07 PM ET

Compare all 88 books

Book	Home spread	Total	Home moneyline	Away moneyline
Admiralbet De	+4.5 -111	53.5 o-118 u-111	+175	-227
Bet25	— —	53.5 o-114 u-108	+175	-222
Bet99	— —	53.5 o-110 u-110	+200	-240
Bet9ja	+4.5 -108	53.5 o-114 u-108	+175	-222
Betathome	— —	53.5 o-114 u-108	+200	-250
Betclic Pt	— —	— o— u—	+180	-263
Betdaq	+4.5 -101	53.5 o-106 u-103	+205	-222
Betfair ExBEST PRICE	— —	53.5 o-104 u+102	+210	-217
Betika	+4.5 -109	53.5 o-116 u-109	+175	-227
BetMGM	— —	53.5 o-110 u-108	+195	-235
BetOnline.ag	+4.5 -105	— o— u—	+192	-230
Betr Au	+4.5 -108	53.5 o-105 u-118	+195	-250
BetRivers	— —	53.5 o-114 u-107	+200	-250
BetUS	+4.5 -105	— o— u—	+195	-230
Betway	+4.5 -110	53.5 o-110 u-110	+200	-250
Betway Za	— —	53.5 o-119 u-111	+190	-263
Bookmaker Eu	— —	— o— u—	+193	-227
Bovada	+4.5 -110	53.5 o-120 u-110	+195	-235
Coderemx	— —	53.5 o-110 u-110	+175	-222
Courtside	— —	53.5 o-110 u-106	+199	-232
Danskespil	— —	53.5 o-110 u-110	+200	-250
DraftKings	— —	53.5 o-112 u-108	+195	-238
Fanatics Sportsbook	— —	— o— u—	+190	-235
FanDuel	— —	53.5 o-110 u-110	+200	-245
Fliff	— —	— o— u—	+200	-270
Fortuna Cz	+4.5 -116	— o— u—	+165	-238
Hardrock	— —	— o— u—	+210	-250
Heritage	— —	53.5 o-110 u-110	+195	-237
Jazzsports	— —	53.5 o-110 u-110	+200	-240
Jouezsport	— —	53.5 o-125 u-125	+170	-278
KalshiBEST PRICE	+4.5 -100	53.5 o-104 u-100	+212	-223
Ladbrokes Au	— —	53.5 o-114 u-109	+185	-227
Livescorebet	— —	53.5 o-112 u-108	+200	-244
LowVig.ag	+4.5 +100	— o— u—	+192	-230
Lvbet	— —	53.5 o-118 u-109	+190	-250
Marcaapuestas	+4.5 -110	53.5 o-110 u-110	+200	-250
Meridianbet	+4.5 -109	53.5 o-116 u-109	+170	-227
Miseojeu	+4.5 -105	53.5 o-108 u-105	+206	-238
MyBookie.ag	— —	— o— u—	+198	-239
Netbet Ro	— —	53.5 o-122 u-114	+175	-256
Norsktipping	+4.5 -115	53.5 o-125 u-115	+165	-238
Novibet	— —	53.5 o-122 u-114	—	—
NovigBEST PRICE	+4.5 +104	53.5 o-106 u+104	+212	-217
Olybet	— —	— o— u—	+165	-286
Onexbet	+4.5 -111	53.5 o-110 u-110	+195	-240
Paddypower	— —	53.5 o-110 u-110	+200	-250
Palmerbet	— —	53.5 o-111 u-111	+202	-256
Pamestoixima	+4.5 -106	53.5 o-114 u-106	+175	-222
Pinnacle	— —	— o— u—	+201	-228
Placard	+4.5 -125	53.5 o-125 u-125	+170	-286
Playalberta	+4.5 -106	53.5 o-116 u-110	+190	-227
Playnow	+4.5 -110	53.5 o-110 u-110	+200	-263
Playup	— —	53.5 o-109 u-114	+190	-250
Pmu	— —	53.5 o-143 u-135	+170	-385
PolymarketBEST PRICE	+4.5 +104	— o— u—	+212	-223
Polymarket UsBEST PRICE	+4.5 +102	53.5 o-106 u+104	+212	-215
ProphetX	— —	— o— u—	+210	-220
Psk	+4.5 -118	— o— u—	+165	-250
ReBet	— —	— o— u—	+181	-216
Sbobet	— —	53.5 o-111 u-106	+181	-244
Sportium	+4.5 -111	53.5 o-111 u-111	+180	-250
Sportybet Ng	+4.5 -109	53.5 o-116 u-109	+170	-233
Sportzino	— —	53.5 o-120 u-120	+185	-260
Starsports	— —	53.5 o-118 u-105	+190	-250
Stoiximan	— —	53.5 o-111 u-110	+200	-238
Strendus	+4.5 -109	53.5 o-114 u-108	+193	-222
Sts	+4.5 -111	53.5 o-118 u-111	+175	-222
Supabets	— —	53.5 o-116 u-109	+177	-222
Superbet Pl	+4.5 -115	53.5 o-118 u-105	+190	-250
Superbet Ro	+4.5 -109	53.5 o-115 u-105	+200	-238
Supersport	— —	53.5 o-118 u-111	+175	-222
Sxbet	— —	— o— u—	+211	-219
Synot	+4.5 -111	— o— u—	+181	-217
TAB (AU)	— —	53.5 o-111 u-111	+190	-238
Teapuesto	+4.5 -116	53.5 o-123 u-116	+160	-244
Thescorebet	+4.5 -110	53.5 o-110 u-110	+200	-240
Thrillzz	— —	53.5 o-120 u-120	+187	-286
Tipico	— —	— o— u—	+180	-238
Tipp3	— —	— o— u—	+170	-222
Tippmix	— —	— o— u—	+169	-233
Tonybet	+4.5 -109	53.5 o-116 u-109	+175	-227
Topsport	— —	53.5 o-114 u-108	+180	-250
Totalbet	+4.5 -114	53.5 o-122 u-114	+165	-238
Toto	— —	53.5 o-110 u-110	+190	-250
Veikkaus	+4.5 -114	53.5 o-119 u-118	+195	-250
Winamax	— —	— o— u—	+170	-227
Wplay	+4.5 -110	53.5 o-110 u-110	+200	-250
Youwager	+4.5 -110	— o— u—	+195	-235

Line moves and betting splits

Steam · live rail

? · what this block is

steam rail

What

Timestamped line moves on the slate, largest first: the game, the market, from → to, the books behind it and the cause when the data names one.

Why it is here

Steam is the market talking; a rail that says who moved and when beats a chart nobody reads.

Example (illustrative rows, not measured)

Time	Game	Move	Books	Cause
3:41 AM ET	SEA @ NE	NE −2 → −2.5	4 books in 90 s	sharp origin
2:58 AM ET	BUF @ MIA	BUF −3 holding at key	6 books	no action

First stored line to latest, largest move first. Each row names its book and dates.

Oct 17, 3:57 AM ET → Oct 18, 3:07 PM ET BUF @ LV · spread · LV +4.5 → +5 11 books at latest check cause not tagged yet

as of Oct 18, 3:41 PM ET

Where the money is going

? · what this block is

money flow

What

Where the money is going on each game: the side it leans to, tickets versus dollars, the open → now line and a one-word read.

Why it is here

A line that moves against the ticket count is the sharpest public signal there is; the read names it.

Example (illustrative rows, not measured)

Game	Side	Open	Now	Read
SEA @ NE	NE	NE −1	NE −2.5	sharp side · 38% tickets · 61% money
KC @ LAC	KC	KC −3	KC −3	split · 52% tickets · 49% money

open → now · tickets vs dollars · 11 books

Game	Open	Now	Read
BUF @ LV	BUF −4.5	BUF −5	63% tickets · 64% money

as of Oct 18, 3:40 PM ET

Props

Player props

Showing the 60 newest of 713 lines.

As of Oct 18, 2026, 3:30 PM EDT.

Captured player-prop lines · Sportsbook lines
Player	Market	Book line	Quote status
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	25.5 · betmgm	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	27.5 · betrivers	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	26.5 · courtside	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	24.5 · dabble	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	27.5 · draftkings	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	25.5 · fanatics	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	25.5 · fanduel	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	26.5 · fliff	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	26.5 · hardrock	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	24.5 · kalshi	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	27.5 · novig	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	25.5 · parlayplay	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	25.5 · pinnacle	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	29.5 · polymarket_us	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	26.5 · prophetx	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	27.5 · rebet	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	26.5 · sleeper	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving YDS	25.5 · sportzino	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · betmgm	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · betrivers	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · courtside	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · dabble	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · draftkings	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · fanduel	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · fliff	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · hardrock	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	4.5 · kalshi	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · novig	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · parlayplay	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · pinnacle	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · polymarket_us	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · prophetx	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · rebet	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · sleeper	—
Ashton Jeanty	Receiving REC	3.5 · sportzino	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	54.5 · betmgm	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	57.5 · betrivers	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	54.5 · courtside	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	53.5 · dabble	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	56.5 · draftkings	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	55.5 · fanatics	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	55.5 · fanduel	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	55.5 · fliff	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	55.5 · hardrock	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	54.5 · kalshi	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	55.5 · novig	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	55.5 · parlayplay	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	55.5 · pinnacle	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	59.5 · polymarket_us	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	55.5 · prophetx	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	55.5 · rebet	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	55.5 · sleeper	—
Ashton Jeanty	Rushing YDS	57.5 · sportzino	—
Ashton Jeanty (LV)	Receiving YDS	25.5 · betonlineag	—
Ashton Jeanty (LV)	Receiving YDS	25.5 · bovada	—
Ashton Jeanty (LV)	Receiving YDS	25.5 · lowvig	—
Ashton Jeanty (LV)	Receiving REC	3.5 · betonlineag	—
Ashton Jeanty (LV)	Receiving REC	3.5 · bovada	—
Ashton Jeanty (LV)	Receiving REC	3.5 · lowvig	—
Ashton Jeanty (LV)	Rushing YDS	54.5 · betonlineag	—

Context for this game

Injuries and news

? · what this block is

injury list

What

Injuries and news for the two teams in this matchup: player, position, team, practice participation, and the game designation once one is filed.

Why it is here

A designation only appears on a team’s final report before kickoff; until then, practice participation is the only signal — showing both, honestly labelled, beats hiding the week until Friday.

Example (illustrative rows, not measured)

Player	Team	Practice	Status
L'Jarius Sneed · CB	KC	Limited (knee)	—
Caleb Douglas · WR	MIA	Did not participate	Out

Player	Team	Practice	Status
BUF
Out	BUF	Out	Out
Out	BUF	Out	Out
Out	BUF	Out	Out
Out	BUF	Out	Out
Out	BUF	Out	Out
Questionable	BUF	Questionable	Questionable
LV
Out	LV	Out	Out
Out	LV	Out	Out
Out	LV	Out	Out
Out	LV	Out	Out
Out	LV	Out	Out
Out	LV	Out	Out

Updated Oct 18, 3:45 PM ET

2 more on the practice report

Injuries and news

? · what this block is

injury list

What

Injuries and news for the two teams in this matchup: player, position, team, practice participation, and the game designation once one is filed.

Why it is here

A designation only appears on a team’s final report before kickoff; until then, practice participation is the only signal — showing both, honestly labelled, beats hiding the week until Friday.

Example (illustrative rows, not measured)

Player	Team	Practice	Status
L'Jarius Sneed · CB	KC	Limited (knee)	—
Caleb Douglas · WR	MIA	Did not participate	Out

Player	Team	Practice	Status
LV
Injured Reserve	LV	IR	—
Injured Reserve	LV	IR	—

Updated Oct 18, 3:45 PM ET

Injury report from Oct 18, 3:45 PM ET

Sharkai lenses

casual-bettor: The public leans BUF: 63% of spread tickets at market line -5.5. 31-43 (42%, n=74) house · baked Oct 18

sharp: Sharp: the line moved from BUF by 6.5 at open to BUF by 5.5 now; the market moved toward LV. 5-8 (38%, n=13) house · baked Oct 18 Includes 1 past game replayed from pre-kickoff lines.

modeler: Modeler favors BUF: the house model has BUF by 6.2, the market has BUF by 5.5. 39-35 (53%, n=74) house · baked Oct 18

Weather

Roof: Dome

No outdoor forecast applies to this venue.

As of Oct 17, 5:10 PM ET.

News and game events

Headlines

BUF at LV

Game events

Podcast mention Oct 17, 3:00 PM ET Las Vegas Raiders: I think the Raiders, what you're seeing is they're coming back to earth a little bit. They're getting only so much they can get out of Brock Bowers, and Kirk Cousins, and Clint Kubiak with their play action, which has been good for them, but they're not a talented team.
Podcast mention Oct 17, 3:00 PM ET Buffalo Bills: The last four o'clock game is Bills at Raiders. Now, the Bills probably should have lost to the Rams, but they're 4-1.
Injury Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Tonka Hemingway (DT, LV): Out
Injury Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Carter Runyon (TE, LV): Out
Injury Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, LV): Out
Injury Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Trey Zuhn III (C, LV): Questionable
Injury Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET DJ Moore (WR, BUF): Questionable
Injury Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Ed Oliver (DE, BUF): Questionable
Injury Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Josh Palmer (WR, BUF): Questionable
Injury Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET Dee Alford (CB, BUF): Questionable
Injury Oct 17, 2:35 AM ET T.J. Sanders (DE, BUF): Questionable
News Oct 16, 10:16 AM ET Why the Bills could be in a 'troubling spot' vs. the Raiders

Ask Sharkai about this game

Ask Sharkai · BUF at LV

21+ · Analytics, not advice · Past results do not predict future ones

BUF at LV. One game, all of it.

BUF at LV · 1 pick: 1 play

tonight table

Prices by book

Backs the pick

Also new

Lines: every available book, open to now

Home spread

Game total

Steam · live rail

steam rail

Where the money is going

money flow

Props

Player props

Player props board

Context for this game

Injuries and news

injury list

Injuries and news

injury list

Headlines

headline list

Game events