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NFL matchup · Week 6

WAS at SF. One game, all of it.

The pick, every available price, player props, injuries, and what matters before kickoff.

Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET KICK IN 1d 0h Pregame board
AwayWAS
HomeSF
Our pick

WAS at SF · 1 pick: 1 play

A play clears our confidence bar and carries the best book price. Any other pick is the model's side on a game with no play: it has no price. Tap a row for the why.

? · what this block is

tonight table

What
One matchup card per game on the slate, three stacked facts: the side the model likes and its confidence, its total read the same way, and up to 3 player-prop reads ranked by confidence — plus the house play and its best captured price underneath.
Why it is here
The whole slate in one glance, with the NO PLAYs shown so you know we looked.
Example (illustrative rows, not measured)
PlayGameSideTotalTop propsBest price
NE −2.5SEA @ NE · Thu 8:20 PM ETconfidence 62/100 · Model side: NE −2.5 ▮▮▮confidence 55/100 · Model side: Over 47.5 ▮Metcalf Rec yds O68.5 · confidence 66/100−108 DK at −2.5
OVER 44.5KC @ LAC · Sun 4:25 PM ETno side published yetconfidence 57/100 · Model side: Over 47.5 ▮(no props block: no prop pick published yet)−105 Pinnacle at 44.5
PickGameModelBest price
SF −7.5 WAS @ SF Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ETconfidence 63/100 Model side: SF −7.5 WAS SF
Side WAS SF confidence 63/100 · Model side: SF −7.5
Total UND OVR confidence 57/100 · Model side: Under 52.5
Top props
  1. Jayden Daniels Passing tds under 1.5 confidence 69/100
  2. Jayden Daniels Passing yards under 205.5 confidence 65/100
−103LowVigat −7.5captured Oct 18, 6:57 PM ET

Model = a confidence out of 100 on a spread or total. It ranks plays. It is not a win chance. On a moneyline it is the model’s win chance. Best price = the best captured book price at the pick’s own line. With no book quote it shows the price at pick time, or a dash. A pick with no price shows the model’s side. n=1 games · as of Oct 18, 7:11 PM ET

Pick strength
confidence 63/100
Best price
−103LowVig
at −7.5 · captured Oct 18, 6:57 PM ET

Prices by book

  • LowVig−103 BEST PRICE
  • BetMGM−105
  • FanDuel−108
  • DraftKings−110
See book prices

Prices as of Oct 18, 7:07 PM ET.

Board as of Oct 18, 7:11 PM ET.

What changed since this pick

Pick may be stale: Marques Sigle is out for SF. This pick needs a review. (Oct 18, 7:15 PM ET)

Works against the pick

  • Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET Mike Evans (WR, SF): Questionable
  • Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET Christian Kirk (WR, SF): Questionable
  • Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET Nick Bosa (DE, SF): Out
  • Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, SF): Out
  • Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET Garret Wallow (LB, SF): Out
  • Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET Mykel Williams (DE, SF): Questionableunsure

Backs the pick

  • Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET Marcus Mariota (QB, WAS): Out
  • Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET Charles Omenihu (DE, WAS): Outunsure

Also new

  • Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET Stefon Diggs (WR, WAS): Questionable
  • Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET Jeremy McNichols (RB, WAS): Questionable
  • Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET Siran Neal (S, SF): Questionable
  • Oct 18, 6:55 PM ET Most of the betting money is on SF
  • Oct 18, 7:15 PM ET Marques Sigle is out for SF. This pick needs a review.
  • Oct 18, 7:15 PM ET Nick Bosa is out for SF. This pick needs a review.
  • Oct 18, 7:15 PM ET Deebo Samuel Sr. is out for SF. This pick needs a review.
  • Oct 18, 7:15 PM ET Dre Greenlaw is out for SF. This pick needs a review.
  • Oct 17, 7:11 PM ET 49ers rule out Bosa for Monday, still hopeful for Evans, Juszczyk
  • Oct 17, 1:21 PM ET Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt out vs. 49ers with groin injury

Checked Oct 18, 7:15 PM ET

Record on similar games

No record is posted for games like this one. It appears here once enough finished games of the same kind have been graded.

Live win chance

Live win chance starts at kickoff and updates each minute while the game is in play.

Lines: every available book, open to now

Every market
MarketLine nowHouse sideBasisFair price
SpreadSF −7.5SF −7.5confidence 63/100SF 49.9% · WAS 50.1%
TotalO/U 52No play· leans Under 52.5confidence 57/100—
MoneylineWAS +324 · SF -435No play—SF 77.5% · WAS 22.5%

Fair price is each side's chance implied by the books' prices, with the books' built-in margin taken out. Prices as of Oct 18, 7:07 PM ET.

WAS moneyline +350 · 21.3% fair
SF moneyline -455 · 78.7% fair
Odds movement

SF spread: first line in this chart −7.5, latest −7.5 (the median of 9 books).

last good as of Oct 18, 7:07 PM ET

Spread: −7.5 to −7.5 (9 books)

Home spread

Near key 7 · live pregame

consensus

n=36 · 35h

First captured -7.5 → Latest -7.5 (0.0)

-7.5 · 2026-10-17T12:33:52.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T02:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T03:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T04:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T07:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T08:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T22:00:00.000Z-7.5 · 2026-10-18T23:07:01.388Z-7.5

Possible reason: Marcus Mariota (QB, WAS): Out · Injury report · Oct 18, 2:35 AM ET

Total: 52 to 52 (9 books)

Game total

consensus

n=36 · 35h

First captured 52 → Latest 52 (0.0)

52 · 2026-10-17T12:33:52.000Z52 · 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T02:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T03:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T04:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T07:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T08:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T22:00:00.000Z52 · 2026-10-18T23:07:01.388Z52

No clear reason found

Median of the books quoting in each hour, last 36 hours.

Every book
BookHome spreadTotalHome moneylineAway moneyline
BetMGM−7.5 -105— o— u—-425+333
BetRiversBEST PRICE−7.5 -10751.5 o-109 u-112-455+325
Bookmaker EuBEST PRICE−7.5 -10551.5 o-115 u-105-399+316
DraftKings−7.5 -110— o— u—-455+350
FanDuel−7.5 -10851.5 o-112 u-108-420+330
LivescorebetBEST PRICE−7.5 -10651.5 o-109 u-111-435+330
NovigBEST PRICE−7.5 +100— o— u—-376+365
Polymarket UsBEST PRICE−7.5 -100— o— u—-365+360
ProphetXBEST PRICE−7.5 +101— o— u—-375+360
SportiumBEST PRICE−7.5 -11151.5 o-118 u-105-455+300
StarsportsBEST PRICE— —51.5 o-118 u-105-400+300
TAB (AU)BEST PRICE−7.5 -11151.5 o-118 u-105-435+320

12 of 87All 87 books · Newest quote Oct 18, 7:07 PM ET

Compare all 87 books
BookHome spreadTotalHome moneylineAway moneyline
Admiralbet De−7.5 -11851.5 o-125 u-118-455+315
Bet25−7.5 -111— o— u—-476+310
Bet99−7.5 -110— o— u—-450+350
Bet9ja−7.5 -11151.5 o-115 u-106-400+300
Betathome−7.5 -111— o— u—-435+330
Betclic Pt— —— o— u—-417+300
Betdaq−7.5 -103— o— u—-385+350
Betfair Ex−7.5 +100— o— u—-370+350
Betika−7.5 -11451.5 o-118 u-109-455+320
BetMGM−7.5 -105— o— u—-425+333
BetOnline.ag−7.5 -108— o— u—-410+324
Betr Au−7.5 -11051.5 o-114 u-108-435+320
BetRiversBEST PRICE−7.5 -10751.5 o-109 u-112-455+325
BetUS— —— o— u—-425+333
Betway−7.5 -110— o— u—-450+350
Betway Za−7.5 -11951.5 o-119 u-111-526+340
Bookmaker EuBEST PRICE−7.5 -10551.5 o-115 u-105-399+316
Bovada−7.5 -110— o— u—-430+320
Coderemx−7.5 -110— o— u—-455+325
Courtside−7.5 -108— o— u—-440+360
Danskespil−7.5 -110— o— u—-435+325
DraftKings−7.5 -110— o— u—-455+350
Fanatics Sportsbook−7.5 -110— o— u—-425+325
FanDuel−7.5 -10851.5 o-112 u-108-420+330
Fliff−7.5 -110— o— u—-490+330
Fortuna Cz−7.5 -11951.5 o-122 u-112-455+320
Hardrock−7.5 -115— o— u—-475+325
Heritage−7.5 -110— o— u—-418+322
Jazzsports−7.5 -108— o— u—-414+320
Jouezsport−7.5 -13051.5 o-130 u-120-556+275
Kalshi−7.5 -100— o— u—-376+355
Ladbrokes Au−7.5 -106— o— u—-400+300
LivescorebetBEST PRICE−7.5 -10651.5 o-109 u-111-435+330
LowVig.ag−7.5 -103— o— u—-410+324
Lvbet— —— o— u—-400+310
Marcaapuestas−7.5 -110— o— u—-450+333
Meridianbet−7.5 -11451.5 o-118 u-109-455+320
Miseojeu−7.5 -105— o— u—-417+335
MyBookie.ag−7.5 -110— o— u—-370+280
Netbet Ro— —51.5 o-128 u-109-455+283
Norsktipping−7.5 -12251.5 o-125 u-118-500+280
Novibet−7.5 -11951.5 o-123 u-114——
NovigBEST PRICE−7.5 +100— o— u—-376+365
Olybet−7.5 -139— o— u—-556+262
Onexbet−7.5 -11151.5 o-115 u-110-370+268
Paddypower−7.5 -11051.5 o-110 u-110-450+300
Palmerbet−7.5 -10851.5 o-112 u-110-455+335
Pamestoixima−7.5 -11151.5 o-115 u-106-435+325
Pinnacle−7.5 -104— o— u—-410+329
Placard−7.5 -125— o— u—-556+275
Playalberta−7.5 -108— o— u—-417+326
Playnow−7.5 -108— o— u—-500+350
Playup−7.5 -110— o— u—-417+310
Pmu−7.5 -13551.5 o-139 u-141-909+275
Polymarket−7.5 -100— o— u—-376+355
Polymarket UsBEST PRICE−7.5 -100— o— u—-365+360
ProphetXBEST PRICE−7.5 +101— o— u—-375+360
Psk−7.5 -11851.5 o-125 u-111-455+320
ReBet−7.5 -11051.5 o-120 u-109-429+340
SportiumBEST PRICE−7.5 -11151.5 o-118 u-105-455+300
Sportybet Ng−7.5 -11551.5 o-118 u-109-476+310
Sportzino−7.5 -11551.5 o-130 u-110-550+325
StarsportsBEST PRICE— —51.5 o-118 u-105-400+300
Stoiximan−7.5 -111— o— u—-417+325
Strendus−7.5 -110— o— u—-400+330
Sts−7.5 -11151.5 o-118 u-111-400+290
Supabets— —51.5 o-118 u-109-435+327
Superbet Pl−7.5 -11151.5 o-114 u-111-417+300
Superbet Ro−7.5 -10551.5 o-111 u-109-400+315
Supersport−7.5 -11151.5 o-118 u-111-435+330
Sxbet−7.5 +100— o— u—-371+362
Synot−7.5 -116— o— u—-435+327
TAB (AU)BEST PRICE−7.5 -11151.5 o-118 u-105-435+320
Teapuesto−7.5 -12051.5 o-125 u-115-500+290
Thescorebet−7.5 -110— o— u—-425+320
Thrillzz−7.5 -11851.5 o-122 u-116-526+302
Tipico−7.5 -118— o— u—-500+340
Tipp3— —— o— u—-500+310
Tippmix— —— o— u—-476+310
Tonybet−7.5 -11651.5 o-119 u-111-476+310
Topsport−7.5 -108— o— u—-500+315
Totalbet−7.5 -11951.5 o-122 u-112-476+298
Toto−7.5 -10851.5 o-115 u-108-455+325
Veikkaus−7.5 -11451.5 o-125 u-112-455+325
Winamax— —— o— u—-625+240
Wplay−7.5 -110— o— u—-450+333
Youwager−7.5 -110— o— u—-390+305
Line moves and betting splits

The spread has moved less than half a point in this chart’s window.

Where the money is going

? · what this block is

money flow

What
Where the money is going on each game: the side it leans to, tickets versus dollars, the open → now line and a one-word read.
Why it is here
A line that moves against the ticket count is the sharpest public signal there is; the read names it.
Example (illustrative rows, not measured)
GameSideOpenNowRead
SEA @ NENENE −1NE −2.5sharp side · 38% tickets · 61% money
KC @ LACKCKC −3KC −3split · 52% tickets · 49% money

open → now · tickets vs dollars · 11 books

GameOpenNowRead
WAS @ SFSF −7.5SF −7.579% tickets · 84% money

as of Oct 18, 7:10 PM ET

Props

Player props

? · what this block is

Player props board

What
Player-prop lines, their books and when each quote was captured.
Why it is here
Compare the same player and market while keeping each book and capture time visible.

Showing the 60 newest of 495 lines.

As of .

Captured player-prop lines · Sportsbook lines
PlayerMarketBook lineQuote status
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS22.5 · betrivers —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · courtside —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · dabble —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · draftkings —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · fanatics —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · fanduel —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS21.5 · fliff —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · hardrock —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS24.5 · kalshi —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · novig —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · parlayplay —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · pinnacle —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS19.5 · polymarket_us —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · prophetx —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · rebet —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS21.5 · sleeper —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving YDS20.5 · sportzino —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · betrivers —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · courtside —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · draftkings —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · fanduel —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · fliff —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · hardrock —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · kalshi —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · novig —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · parlayplay —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · pinnacle —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · polymarket_us —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · prophetx —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · rebet —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC2.5 · sleeper —
Antonio WilliamsReceiving REC1.5 · sportzino —
Austin EkelerReceiving YDS6.5 · dabble —
Austin EkelerReceiving YDS6.5 · parlayplay —
Austin EkelerReceiving YDS6.5 · sportzino —
Austin EkelerReceiving REC1.5 · sportzino —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · betmgm —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · betrivers —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · courtside —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS16.5 · dabble —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · draftkings —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS20.5 · fanatics —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · fanduel —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · fliff —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · hardrock —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · kalshi —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS18.5 · novig —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · parlayplay —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · polymarket_us —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · prophetx —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · rebet —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS19.5 · sleeper —
Austin EkelerRushing YDS16.5 · sportzino —
Austin Ekeler (WAS)Rushing YDS19.5 · bovada —
Brock PurdyPassing Ints0.5 · betmgm —
Brock PurdyPassing Ints0.5 · betrivers —
Brock PurdyPassing Ints0.5 · draftkings —
Brock PurdyPassing Ints0.5 · fliff —
Brock PurdyPassing Ints0.5 · hardrock —
Brock PurdyPassing Ints0.5 · novig —

Context for this game

Injuries and news

? · what this block is

injury list

What
Injuries and news for the two teams in this matchup: player, position, team, practice participation, and the game designation once one is filed.
Why it is here
A designation only appears on a team’s final report before kickoff; until then, practice participation is the only signal — showing both, honestly labelled, beats hiding the week until Friday.
Example (illustrative rows, not measured)
PlayerTeamPracticeStatus
L'Jarius Sneed · CBKCLimited (knee)—
Caleb Douglas · WRMIADid not participateOut
PlayerTeamPracticeStatus
SF
OutSFOutOut
OutSFOutOut
OutSFOutOut
OutSFOutOut
QuestionableSFQuestionableQuestionable
QuestionableSFQuestionableQuestionable
QuestionableSFQuestionableQuestionable
QuestionableSFQuestionableQuestionable
QuestionableSFQuestionableQuestionable

Updated Oct 18, 7:15 PM ET

4 more on the practice report

Injuries and news

? · what this block is

injury list

What
Injuries and news for the two teams in this matchup: player, position, team, practice participation, and the game designation once one is filed.
Why it is here
A designation only appears on a team’s final report before kickoff; until then, practice participation is the only signal — showing both, honestly labelled, beats hiding the week until Friday.
Example (illustrative rows, not measured)
PlayerTeamPracticeStatus
L'Jarius Sneed · CBKCLimited (knee)—
Caleb Douglas · WRMIADid not participateOut
PlayerTeamPracticeStatus
SF
Injured ReserveSFIR—
Injured ReserveSFIR—
SuspensionSFSuspended—
Injured ReserveSFIR—

Updated Oct 18, 7:15 PM ET

Injury report from Oct 18, 7:15 PM ET

Sharkai lenses

casual-bettor: The public leans SF: 79% of spread tickets at market line 7.5. 31-43 (42%, n=74) house · baked Oct 18
sharp: Sharp: the line moved from SF by 5.5 at open to SF by 7.5 now; the market moved toward SF. 5-8 (38%, n=13) house · baked Oct 18 Includes 1 past game replayed from pre-kickoff lines.
modeler: Modeler favors SF: the house model has SF by 11.9, the market has SF by 7.5. 39-35 (53%, n=74) house · baked Oct 18
Weather
Temp
62°F
Wind
11 mph
Rain
0%

Forecast for kickoff, as of Oct 18, 5:10 PM ET.

News and game events

Headlines

? · what this block is

headline list

What
Headlines relevant to the board: headline, when, and (when the source has one) an outlet, a tag and a link.
Why it is here
The news behind a line move sits beside the line move, not off in a different tab.

WAS at SF

Game events

  • Injury Stefon Diggs (WR, WAS): Questionable
  • Injury Marcus Mariota (QB, WAS): Out
  • Injury Jeremy McNichols (RB, WAS): Questionable
  • Injury Charles Omenihu (DE, WAS): Out
  • Injury Mike Evans (WR, SF): Questionable
  • Injury Siran Neal (S, SF): Questionable
  • Injury Christian Kirk (WR, SF): Questionable
  • Injury Nick Bosa (DE, SF): Out
  • Injury Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, SF): Out
  • Injury Garret Wallow (LB, SF): Out
  • Injury Mykel Williams (DE, SF): Questionable
  • Injury Jordan Magee (LB, WAS): Questionable
Ask Sharkai about this game

Ask Sharkai · WAS at SF

21+ · Analytics, not advice · Past results do not predict future ones