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▲-1 → 1 (+2) since open DAL @ GB GB -1 → +1 · Bovada — open DAL @ GB matchup▲6 → 5 (-1) since open BUF @ LV LV +6 → +5 · BetMGM — open BUF @ LV matchup▲-8.5 → -7.5 (+1) since open LAC @ KC KC -8.5 → -7.5 · Bovada — open LAC @ KC matchup

Edge Lab · choose a source-backed question

Run a saved question, or type free text naming home dogs, division games, primetime, wind, rest-day edge, week, public tickets, line move, spread, or total. If the graded history can't score what you asked, you get "Couldn't match this question", never a different question's number.

Every answer is a count of what happened against the closing line, not a priced bet. A ?query= link reopens the same saved answer and is marked stale once it is more than a day old. Selecting or running a question does not award XP.

Edge · Lab

Pick a situation. Get the receipts.

Every answer uses graded games from the selected seasons. Nothing here is a pick.

Edge Lab · start from a question, get a number in seconds

The question becomes a formula lens and is backtested over graded history — baseline and sample size always sit beside it. Matched against 64 real built situations; an unmatched question is refused, never guessed at.

Home underdogSpreadTotalWind (mph)Rest-day edgeWeek
Try:

Result

Home dogs in division games

277 graded games · 2019–25 · NFL spread · as of Jan 3, 7:00 PM ET

ATS spread win rate

51.3%

n=273 decided spread bets · as of Jan 3, 7:00 PM ET

same-game baseline

Ready

48.2%

n=1828 decided spread bets

as of Jan 3

lift vs baseline

Ready

0.031

n=273 decided spread bets

as of Jan 3

CLV

—

n=0 graded wagers

as of Jan 3

late-season share

Ready

60%

weeks 10-18 · ATS spread 50.9% · n=165

as of Jan 3

Hit, baseline and lift

The result card's three comparable rate metrics in percentage points.

0.010.320.530.841.051.3Hit rate: 51.3Hit rateHit rateBaseline: 48.2BaselineBaselineLift: 3.1LiftLift

graded result - as of Jan 3, 7:00 PM ET

Season-half regime

ATS hit rate in the early and late season buckets returned by the backtest.

48.449.650.852.053.254.4ATS hit rate (%)Weeks 1-9: 51.9Weeks 10-18: 50.9Weeks 1-9Weeks 10-18

season halves - as of Jan 3, 7:00 PM ET

Quests · claims and evaluations

No data

No claim quest progress yet

Sign in to track claim/evaluation quests. Missing progress is never converted to XP or a fabricated count.

  • NO RUN No run has produced a measurement yet, so no guardrail can speak.

Coach

Ask a question → the Lab counts how it did over every graded game in the window. Read the caption → games counted, seasons covered, and the as-of date sit under every number. Compare on the Bench → calibration and leaderboard count their own games, so their numbers are not this one.