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DFS · NFL · DraftKings

The current slate, solved out loud.

Served NFL projections, DraftKings salaries and modeled ownership. Compare value, stacks and leverage, then optimize your lineups from the same pool.

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The NFL main slate has 2 games and locks Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM EDT. Our model projects 55 of 110 priced players. Jayden Daniels leads the board at 21.4 points and is also the best value at 3.56 points per $1K.

Slate locks in
2h 40m
Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM EDT
Games
2
on the main slate
Projected
55
of 110 priced players
Contests
25
open in this contest group

01 · Value board

Who is underpriced this week, and why

Value is projected points per $1,000 of salary. Ownership is modeled.

Who is underpriced this week, and why

Ordered by projected points. Points per $1K is projection divided by salary in thousands. Field share is how many lineups we expect to roster each player.

55 of 110 projected

This slate · 55 projected of 110 priced

PlayerPos
+ Add QB$6,00021.43.56
+ Add QB$5,50019.23.49
+ Add QB$7,00017.22.46
+ Add QB$6,80017.02.50
+ Add WR$6,90016.22.35
+ Add RB$7,90015.01.90
+ Add WR$8,30014.31.72
+ Add RB$7,50014.31.90
Showing 8 of 110 priced players
Rows use the same projections as the lineup builder. 55 of 110 priced players carry no served projection yet. They are listed with a reason and cannot be added to a lineup. Field share is our estimate from salary and projection. It is not contest data.

NFL player tiers

Players in the same tier are too close to call — pick from the highest tier you like the look of, and don't sweat the order inside it.

0102030.T1T2Jayden Daniels — Projected points: 21.38 ±10.84 (top 10% by assumed ceiling)Jayden Daniels · QBJordan Love — Projected points: 19.20 ±9.73 Jordan Love · QBDak Prescott — Projected points: 17.23 ±8.73 Dak Prescott · QBBrock Purdy — Projected points: 17.03 ±8.63 Brock Purdy · QBChristian Watson — Projected points: 16.21 ±15.74 (borderline with next tier) (top 10% by assumed ceiling)Christian Watson · WRChristian McCaffrey — Projected points: 15.00 ±11.76 (borderline with next tier) (top 10% by assumed ceiling)Christian McCaffrey · RBCeeDee Lamb — Projected points: 14.31 ±12.24 (borderline with next tier) (top 10% by assumed ceiling)CeeDee Lamb · WRJavonte Williams — Projected points: 14.28 ±11.19 (borderline with next tier) (top 10% by assumed ceiling)Javonte Williams · RBMatthew Golden — Projected points: 14.24 ±12.18 (borderline with next tier) Matthew Golden · WRGeorge Pickens — Projected points: 13.53 ±11.57 (borderline with next tier) George Pickens · WRMike Evans — Projected points: 12.63 ±10.81 (borderline with next tier) Mike Evans · WRStefon Diggs — Projected points: 11.36 ±8.94 (borderline with next tier) Stefon Diggs · WRMarShawn Lloyd — Projected points: 10.59 ±9.62 (borderline with next tier) MarShawn Lloyd · RBTerry McLaurin — Projected points: 10.53 ±8.28 (borderline with next tier) Terry McLaurin · WRTucker Kraft — Projected points: 9.47 ±9.16 (borderline with next tier) Tucker Kraft · TERyan Flournoy — Projected points: 9.21 ±7.24 (borderline with next tier) Ryan Flournoy · WRGeorge Kittle — Projected points: 9.05 ±8.75 (borderline with next tier) George Kittle · TEChig Okonkwo — Projected points: 8.28 ±8.01 (borderline with next tier) Chig Okonkwo · TERachaad White — Projected points: 6.99 ±7.37 (borderline with next tier) Rachaad White · RBAntonio Williams — Projected points: 6.88 ±8.04 (borderline with next tier) Antonio Williams · WRAustin Ekeler — Projected points: 5.87 ±6.20 (borderline with next tier) Austin Ekeler · RBJake Ferguson — Projected points: 5.80 ±6.67 (borderline with next tier) Jake Ferguson · TE49ers — Projected points: 5.76 ±1.44 49ers · DSTTreylon Burks — Projected points: 4.96 ±5.79 (borderline with next tier) Treylon Burks · WRKaleb Johnson — Projected points: 4.89 ±5.16 (borderline with next tier) Kaleb Johnson · RBJonnu Smith — Projected points: 4.81 ±5.53 (borderline with next tier) Jonnu Smith · TEKaelon Black — Projected points: 4.77 ±5.03 (borderline with next tier) Kaelon Black · RBPackers — Projected points: 4.71 ±1.18 Packers · DSTCowboys — Projected points: 4.59 ±1.15 Cowboys · DSTPierre Strong Jr. — Projected points: 4.57 ±4.83 (borderline with next tier) Pierre Strong Jr. · RBBrandin Cooks — Projected points: 4.55 ±5.32 (borderline with next tier) Brandin Cooks · WRTyler Goodson — Projected points: 4.28 ±4.52 Tyler Goodson · RBJordan Watkins — Projected points: 4.18 ±4.89 (borderline with next tier) Jordan Watkins · WRCommanders — Projected points: 3.99 ±1.00 Commanders · DSTJosh Whyle — Projected points: 3.71 ±1.00 Josh Whyle · TEEmari Demercado — Projected points: 3.71 ±1.00 Emari Demercado · RBHunter Luepke — Projected points: 3.27 ±1.00 Hunter Luepke · RBMark Redman — Projected points: 2.96 ±1.00 Mark Redman · TEKyle Juszczyk — Projected points: 2.69 ±1.00 Kyle Juszczyk · RBLuke Schoonmaker — Projected points: 2.34 ±1.00 Luke Schoonmaker · TEBrevyn Spann-Ford — Projected points: 2.28 ±1.00 Brevyn Spann-Ford · TEJohn Bates — Projected points: 1.54 ±1.00 John Bates · TELuke Farrell — Projected points: 1.12 ±1.00 Luke Farrell · TEBen Sinnott — Projected points: 0.54 ±1.00 Ben Sinnott · TE
● dot = projection — bar = ±1 SD: measured from our graded results where a position has 30+ of them, else an assumed ±25% band around the projection (at least 1 pt), not a measured range ◌ dashed ring = borderline with the next tier ★ = top 10% by ceiling (measured where graded, else assumed 135% of projection)
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Salary against projection

Each dot is one priced player. Higher dots carry a larger projection.

NFL salary against projection: Jayden Daniels salary $6,000, projected 21.4 points, Jordan Love salary $5,500, projected 19.2 points, Dak Prescott salary $7,000, projected 17.2 points, Brock Purdy salary $6,800, projected 17.0 points, Christian Watson salary $6,900, projected 16.2 points, Christian McCaffrey salary $7,900, projected 15.0 points, CeeDee Lamb salary $8,300, projected 14.3 points, Javonte Williams salary $7,500, projected 14.3 points, Matthew Golden salary $5,900, projected 14.2 points, George Pickens salary $6,800, projected 13.5 points, Mike Evans salary $6,500, projected 12.6 points, Stefon Diggs salary $5,300, projected 11.4 points, MarShawn Lloyd salary $5,400, projected 10.6 points, Terry McLaurin salary $5,100, projected 10.5 points, Tucker Kraft salary $4,900, projected 9.5 points, Ryan Flournoy salary $4,300, projected 9.2 points, George Kittle salary $5,200, projected 9.0 points, Chig Okonkwo salary $3,300, projected 8.3 points, Rachaad White salary $4,600, projected 7.0 points, Antonio Williams salary $4,100, projected 6.9 points, Austin Ekeler salary $4,200, projected 5.9 points, Jake Ferguson salary $4,600, projected 5.8 points, 49ers salary $3,400, projected 5.8 points, Treylon Burks salary $3,100, projected 5.0 points, Kaleb Johnson salary $4,300, projected 4.9 points, Jonnu Smith salary $2,600, projected 4.8 points, Kaelon Black salary $4,400, projected 4.8 points, Packers salary $3,000, projected 4.7 points, Cowboys salary $2,700, projected 4.6 points, Pierre Strong Jr. salary $4,000, projected 4.6 points, Brandin Cooks salary $4,000, projected 4.6 points, Tyler Goodson salary $4,000, projected 4.3 points, Jordan Watkins salary $3,000, projected 4.2 points, Commanders salary $2,400, projected 4.0 points, KaVontae Turpin salary $3,000, projected 3.9 points, Josh Whyle salary $2,500, projected 3.7 points, Emari Demercado salary $4,000, projected 3.7 points, Dyami Brown salary $3,000, projected 3.6 points, Hunter Luepke salary $4,000, projected 3.3 points, Mark Redman salary $2,500, projected 3.0 points, Bo Melton salary $3,000, projected 2.9 points, Jonathan Mingo salary $3,000, projected 2.9 points, Kyle Juszczyk salary $4,000, projected 2.7 points, Jordan James salary $4,000, projected 2.6 points, Savion Williams salary $3,000, projected 2.5 points, Jacob Cowing salary $3,200, projected 2.4 points, Luke Schoonmaker salary $2,500, projected 2.3 points, Brevyn Spann-Ford salary $2,500, projected 2.3 points, John Bates salary $2,500, projected 1.5 points, Luke Farrell salary $2,500, projected 1.1 points, J. Michael Sturdivant salary $3,000, projected 0.5 points, Ben Sinnott salary $2,500, projected 0.5 points, Luke McCaffrey salary $3,000, projected 0.5 points, Colson Yankoff salary $2,500, projected 0.1 points, Brayden Willis salary $2,500, projected 0.1 pointssalaryprojected pointsJayden Daniels: $6,000 · 21.4 projected pointsJordan Love: $5,500 · 19.2 projected pointsDak Prescott: $7,000 · 17.2 projected pointsBrock Purdy: $6,800 · 17.0 projected pointsChristian Watson: $6,900 · 16.2 projected pointsChristian McCaffrey: $7,900 · 15.0 projected pointsCeeDee Lamb: $8,300 · 14.3 projected pointsJavonte Williams: $7,500 · 14.3 projected pointsMatthew Golden: $5,900 · 14.2 projected pointsGeorge Pickens: $6,800 · 13.5 projected pointsMike Evans: $6,500 · 12.6 projected pointsStefon Diggs: $5,300 · 11.4 projected pointsMarShawn Lloyd: $5,400 · 10.6 projected pointsTerry McLaurin: $5,100 · 10.5 projected pointsTucker Kraft: $4,900 · 9.5 projected pointsRyan Flournoy: $4,300 · 9.2 projected pointsGeorge Kittle: $5,200 · 9.0 projected pointsChig Okonkwo: $3,300 · 8.3 projected pointsRachaad White: $4,600 · 7.0 projected pointsAntonio Williams: $4,100 · 6.9 projected pointsAustin Ekeler: $4,200 · 5.9 projected pointsJake Ferguson: $4,600 · 5.8 projected points49ers: $3,400 · 5.8 projected pointsTreylon Burks: $3,100 · 5.0 projected pointsKaleb Johnson: $4,300 · 4.9 projected pointsJonnu Smith: $2,600 · 4.8 projected pointsKaelon Black: $4,400 · 4.8 projected pointsPackers: $3,000 · 4.7 projected pointsCowboys: $2,700 · 4.6 projected pointsPierre Strong Jr.: $4,000 · 4.6 projected pointsBrandin Cooks: $4,000 · 4.6 projected pointsTyler Goodson: $4,000 · 4.3 projected pointsJordan Watkins: $3,000 · 4.2 projected pointsCommanders: $2,400 · 4.0 projected pointsKaVontae Turpin: $3,000 · 3.9 projected pointsJosh Whyle: $2,500 · 3.7 projected pointsEmari Demercado: $4,000 · 3.7 projected pointsDyami Brown: $3,000 · 3.6 projected pointsHunter Luepke: $4,000 · 3.3 projected pointsMark Redman: $2,500 · 3.0 projected pointsBo Melton: $3,000 · 2.9 projected pointsJonathan Mingo: $3,000 · 2.9 projected pointsKyle Juszczyk: $4,000 · 2.7 projected pointsJordan James: $4,000 · 2.6 projected pointsSavion Williams: $3,000 · 2.5 projected pointsJacob Cowing: $3,200 · 2.4 projected pointsLuke Schoonmaker: $2,500 · 2.3 projected pointsBrevyn Spann-Ford: $2,500 · 2.3 projected pointsJohn Bates: $2,500 · 1.5 projected pointsLuke Farrell: $2,500 · 1.1 projected pointsJ. Michael Sturdivant: $3,000 · 0.5 projected pointsBen Sinnott: $2,500 · 0.5 projected pointsLuke McCaffrey: $3,000 · 0.5 projected pointsColson Yankoff: $2,500 · 0.1 projected pointsBrayden Willis: $2,500 · 0.1 projected points

02 · Stacks

Stacks ranked by score, not by team order

Compare stacks from the served player pool.

Stack Builder

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Pricing rows and model edges
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03 · Leverage

Where the field is wrong

Modeled ownership alongside value, from the served player pool.

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Pricing rows and model edges
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NFL modeled ownership vs value: Jayden Daniels ownership 38.8%, value 3.6, Jordan Love ownership 30.5%, value 3.5, Dak Prescott ownership 15.3%, value 2.5, Brock Purdy ownership 15.4%, value 2.5, Christian Watson ownership 60.0%, value 2.3, Christian McCaffrey ownership 60.0%, value 1.9, CeeDee Lamb ownership 45.0%, value 1.7, Javonte Williams ownership 60.0%, value 1.9, Matthew Golden ownership 60.0%, value 2.4, George Pickens ownership 36.0%, value 2.0, Mike Evans ownership 24.7%, value 1.9, Stefon Diggs ownership 14.7%, value 2.1, MarShawn Lloyd ownership 41.9%, value 2.0, Terry McLaurin ownership 21.8%, value 2.1, Tucker Kraft ownership 59.6%, value 1.9, Ryan Flournoy ownership 21.8%, value 2.1, George Kittle ownership 39.0%, value 1.7, Chig Okonkwo ownership 27.8%, value 2.5, Rachaad White ownership 14.6%, value 1.5, Antonio Williams ownership 10.0%, value 1.7, Austin Ekeler ownership 8.9%, value 1.4, Jake Ferguson ownership 10.0%, value 1.3, 49ers ownership 44.9%, value 1.7, Treylon Burks ownership 5.9%, value 1.6, Kaleb Johnson ownership 5.7%, value 1.1, Jonnu Smith ownership 9.4%, value 1.8, Kaelon Black ownership 5.7%, value 1.1, Packers ownership 23.6%, value 1.6, Cowboys ownership 18.0%, value 1.7, Pierre Strong Jr. ownership 5.7%, value 1.1, Brandin Cooks ownership 5.3%, value 1.1, Tyler Goodson ownership 4.4%, value 1.1, Jordan Watkins ownership 5.9%, value 1.4, Commanders ownership 13.5%, value 1.7, KaVontae Turpin ownership 4.1%, value 1.3, Josh Whyle ownership 4.4%, value 1.5, Emari Demercado ownership 3.1%, value 0.9, Dyami Brown ownership 3.5%, value 1.2, Hunter Luepke ownership 2.5%, value 0.8, Mark Redman ownership 2.7%, value 1.2, Bo Melton ownership 2.3%, value 1.0, Jonathan Mingo ownership 2.3%, value 1.0, Kyle Juszczyk ownership 1.9%, value 0.7, Jordan James ownership 1.9%, value 0.7, Savion Williams ownership 1.1%, value 0.8, Jacob Cowing ownership 1.7%, value 0.8, Luke Schoonmaker ownership 1.6%, value 0.9, Brevyn Spann-Ford ownership 1.6%, value 0.9, John Bates ownership 0.5%, value 0.6, Luke Farrell ownership 0.5%, value 0.4, J. Michael Sturdivant ownership 0.1%, value 0.2, Ben Sinnott ownership 0.1%, value 0.2, Luke McCaffrey ownership 0.1%, value 0.2, Colson Yankoff ownership 0.1%, value 0.1, Brayden Willis ownership 0.1%, value 0.0own %valuevalue + low-ownJayden Daniels: 38.8% own · value 3.6Jordan Love: 30.5% own · value 3.5Dak Prescott: 15.3% own · value 2.5Brock Purdy: 15.4% own · value 2.5Christian Watson: 60.0% own · value 2.3Christian McCaffrey: 60.0% own · value 1.9CeeDee Lamb: 45.0% own · value 1.7Javonte Williams: 60.0% own · value 1.9Matthew Golden: 60.0% own · value 2.4George Pickens: 36.0% own · value 2.0Mike Evans: 24.7% own · value 1.9Stefon Diggs: 14.7% own · value 2.1MarShawn Lloyd: 41.9% own · value 2.0Terry McLaurin: 21.8% own · value 2.1Tucker Kraft: 59.6% own · value 1.9Ryan Flournoy: 21.8% own · value 2.1George Kittle: 39.0% own · value 1.7Chig Okonkwo: 27.8% own · value 2.5Rachaad White: 14.6% own · value 1.5Antonio Williams: 10.0% own · value 1.7Austin Ekeler: 8.9% own · value 1.4Jake Ferguson: 10.0% own · value 1.349ers: 44.9% own · value 1.7Treylon Burks: 5.9% own · value 1.6Kaleb Johnson: 5.7% own · value 1.1Jonnu Smith: 9.4% own · value 1.8Kaelon Black: 5.7% own · value 1.1Packers: 23.6% own · value 1.6Cowboys: 18.0% own · value 1.7Pierre Strong Jr.: 5.7% own · value 1.1Brandin Cooks: 5.3% own · value 1.1Tyler Goodson: 4.4% own · value 1.1Jordan Watkins: 5.9% own · value 1.4Commanders: 13.5% own · value 1.7KaVontae Turpin: 4.1% own · value 1.3Josh Whyle: 4.4% own · value 1.5Emari Demercado: 3.1% own · value 0.9Dyami Brown: 3.5% own · value 1.2Hunter Luepke: 2.5% own · value 0.8Mark Redman: 2.7% own · value 1.2Bo Melton: 2.3% own · value 1.0Jonathan Mingo: 2.3% own · value 1.0Kyle Juszczyk: 1.9% own · value 0.7Jordan James: 1.9% own · value 0.7Savion Williams: 1.1% own · value 0.8Jacob Cowing: 1.7% own · value 0.8Luke Schoonmaker: 1.6% own · value 0.9Brevyn Spann-Ford: 1.6% own · value 0.9John Bates: 0.5% own · value 0.6Luke Farrell: 0.5% own · value 0.4J. Michael Sturdivant: 0.1% own · value 0.2Ben Sinnott: 0.1% own · value 0.2Luke McCaffrey: 0.1% own · value 0.2Colson Yankoff: 0.1% own · value 0.1Brayden Willis: 0.1% own · value 0.0

04 · Lineup builder

Build it and see why

Single-lineup DFS is free. Multi-entry and exports are Pro.

Highest projected points, no risk adjustment.

Floor and ceiling targets need measured ranges. Until then, lineups use the projection.

One lineup. How many different lineups to build. Free: 1. Research Pro: up to 150 here.

Multi-entry (3, 20, 150) needs Research Pro — $2.99/week. Build one lineup for free.

FanDuel salaries for this slate are not loaded yet.

Exposures (0 / 110)

The least and most lineups this player can appear in. A max of 50% means at most half of your lineups.

Jayden Daniels
Jordan Love
Dak Prescott
Brock Purdy
Christian Watson
Christian McCaffrey
CeeDee Lamb
Javonte Williams
Matthew Golden
George Pickens
Mike Evans
Stefon Diggs
MarShawn Lloyd
Terry McLaurin
Tucker Kraft
Ryan Flournoy
George Kittle
Chig Okonkwo
Rachaad White
Antonio Williams
Austin Ekeler
Jake Ferguson
49ers
Treylon Burks
Kaleb Johnson
Jonnu Smith
Kaelon Black
Packers
Cowboys
Pierre Strong Jr.
Brandin Cooks
Tyler Goodson
Jordan Watkins
Commanders
KaVontae Turpin
Josh Whyle
Emari Demercado
Dyami Brown
Hunter Luepke
Mark Redman
Bo Melton
Jonathan Mingo
Kyle Juszczyk
Jordan James
Savion Williams
Jacob Cowing
Luke Schoonmaker
Brevyn Spann-Ford
John Bates
Luke Farrell

Showing 50 of 110 players. Type a name to find anyone else.

No lineups built yet

Press Build 1 Lineup above to generate optimised rosters using your mean objective.

Simulator

No lineups yet — build some first.

NFL $60K Post Pattern [$20K to 1st] (Primetime) Slate 154946. Conditional model scenarios, not measured winning odds. The server rechecks all evidence before calculating.

Run settings

This contest exceeds the 5000-entry CPU limit. No sampled-rank approximation is offered.

Choose lineups and supported metrics. No results are shown until the complete receipt verifies.

Field model and uncertainty assumptions

Scenario estimates, not calibrated contest-winning probabilities or investment returns.

Each submitted lineup is evaluated as one hypothetical entry against the same modeled field, not as a simultaneously entered portfolio.

The field is filled to published capacity, not entries filled so far. Opponents are ownership-weighted legal rosters with replacement across entries, fixed for this seed. Marginal ownership is not a calibrated joint roster distribution.

Each player has one shared outcome per draw across every entry. Scores are Gaussian using the reader’s supplied mean and standard deviation; these dispersion inputs are not measured calibration.

Slate projections take each player’s standard deviation from our graded results at his position when there are at least 30; otherwise it is set to 25% of the projection, at least 1 point, a spread that is assumed, not measured from past outcomes.

Distinct players are independent unless explicit correlation assumptions are supplied. Correlations must be symmetric and positive definite; they are not silently repaired.

Tied entries split the combined prizes for their occupied ranks equally, before provider rounding. Win means outright first; cash means a positive payout.

Intervals and standard errors measure Monte Carlo sampling error conditional on this fixed modeled field and score model. They do not measure ownership, projection, correlation or model error.

joint-normal-exact-field/v2 · dfs-sim-receipt/v2. At most 2 application CPU jobs; 15s stream budget. No contest is entered.

Mass Multi-Entry

NEW

Spray 20 / 50 / 150 diverse lineups — set exposure caps and novelty, then ship to DK.

Lineup count
Stick to the projections Mix it up

Higher variation nudges each lineup's projections randomly, so your lineups share fewer players.

Objective mode
Per-position caps (override the global cap per slot)

Pick a count above to generate your multi-entry pool.

Session lineup usage

Build lineups to see session usage.

Session entries are not verified as one saved slate. View saved exposure by slate.

No lineups in this session. Build lineups to populate session usage.

05 · News

News that changes a slot, as it lands

Player news for this sport, streamed live. Late swap is paused, so saved lineups stay unchanged.

DFS · Player signals

What changed for a player, in one place

Role, usage, news risk and availability for slate players, with the top signals behind each. Built ahead of time from injury reports, depth charts, news and recent podcast takes.

Player signals

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06 · Contests

Pick the contest the lineup was built for

Only listed contests in the served group appear here.

07 · Showdown

One game, six slots, one captain at 1.5x

Showdown has its own builder: pick the game first, then build around a captain.