Blog and learning
Find a published guide, inspect its sources, and put the idea into practice.
Articles
- Open-Source Betting Model Release Notes (Cornerstone)Monthly release notes for our open-source TF.js betting models. Brier vs Vegas close, model cards, changelog, and remixable workshop links.
- Pre-Snap Formation Features: A Bettable WalkthroughEngineer pre-snap formation features that move WR yardage props. Receiver alignment, motion-at-snap, RB depth, and the Brier-lift math.
- A Reproducible Backtest Checklist Bettors Actually FollowA 12-point checklist to tell a real edge from a hot streak: test past seasons, price after the juice, charge for the line you miss, prove it holds.
- A Significant Strikes Prop Model With Stylistic AdjustmentsBuild a UFC significant-strikes prop model in the browser. Per-15-minute rates, stylistic adjustments, takedown rate, and orthodox vs southpaw effects.
- Stacking Two Sports Models Without Writing PythonA click-driven tutorial for stacking two sports betting models in the browser. Meta-learner, calibration, Brier comparison, and ensemble weights.
- Build an NFL Spread Model in TensorFlow.js From ScratchA TensorFlow.js NFL betting model tutorial: define the architecture, prep the data, train in the browser, and evaluate against the closing spread.
- Transfer Portal → Team Total Deltas: A CFB Bettor's GuideQuantify how CFB transfer portal moves shift team totals. Recent QB transfers, methodology, and how to find futures and weekly edges.
- A UFC Round-Simulation Brick You Can RemixBuild a UFC round-by-round Monte Carlo simulator in the browser. Style matchups, takedown rate, finish probability, and round-prop edges.
- XGBoost vs TF.js Bricks: Which to Use WhenA head-to-head guide for choosing between XGBoost and TF.js bricks for betting models — accuracy, latency, memory, and browser portability.
- Fantasy Football Bye-Week Strategy for 2026: Draft Depth Without Wasting PicksThe real 2026 NFL bye-week table, which week hits hardest, and the roster-construction rules worth using instead of drafting around it.
- DFS Leverage Without Bad Projections: Finding Salary Pivots That PayHow to build leverage in NFL DFS lineups by pivoting salary without sacrificing projection quality.
- NFL DFS Ownership Leverage Strategy for 2026Use 2026 NFL DFS ownership projections to find leverage without making low-probability tournament lineups.
- NFL DFS Showdown Captain Strategy for 2026How to choose 2026 NFL DFS showdown captains using role, salary, game script, and leverage instead of raw projection alone.
- 2026 Best Ball Stack Strategy: Correlation Without Drafting Like a FanThe four highest-scoring QB and pass-catcher pairs on the Week 1 board, with what each pair costs. Philadelphia is the bargain.
- Injury Discounts in 2026 Fantasy Drafts: When the Market Gets Too ScaredThe injury discount is not there. Six often-injured skill players, and the draft room is paying above the Week 1 projection board on every one.
- NFL Draft 2026 Prop Bets: What the Numbers SayNFL draft prop bets explained: draft-position markets, first OL taken, RB in round 1, and where models find edge before the picks roll in.
- We Backtested Every Preseason RB1 Pick from 2019-2024 — Here's the Hit RateA six-season backtest of preseason RB1 ADP versus final fantasy finishes, with hit rates by tier, miss profiles, and late-round RB1 archetypes.
- FAAB Strategy: How Much to Bid on Waiver-Wire Adds, by Projection TierFAAB bidding strategy by projection tier: the Shark Snip model maps each waiver type — RB handcuff, WR breakout, streamer — to a bid percentage.
Answers, short and sourced
- Are sports betting models worth paying for?
Sports betting models are worth paying for only if they show credible proof of beating no-vig closing prices. Pay for transparent edge, not confident picks, glossy records, or a feed that hides its math.
- Are free betting calculators accurate?
Free betting calculators are accurate when they use the correct formulas. No-vig, Kelly, and parlay EV math is deterministic, so the real edge comes from your probability inputs, not a paid calculator wrapper.
- How accurate are model-based NFL picks?
Model-based NFL picks are accurate when they beat break-even over time, but calibration and CLV matter more than a single win rate; about 52.4% ATS breaks even at -110.
Pundit ledger
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Hit rate 62.3% on 56 graded calls, 95% range 60 to 83%.
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Hit rate 58.4% on 27 graded calls, 95% range 55 to 87%.
Portland Trail Blazers (Official)
Hit rate 55.7% on 20 graded calls, 95% range 48 to 85%.
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Hit rate 40.0% on 25 graded calls, 95% range 15 to 65%.
Podcasts
- Did we just watch the END of the Jameis Winston experience?!
- ITB Postgame Show: Where Do Eagles Go From Here After Fourth Straight Loss?
- Giants Insane Comeback Falls Short Vs Saints | 1035
- Eagles/Panthers Postgame Pod: We Got Three Weeks To Save The Season
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