Angles · look-through
Qb Out
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready48.2%
n=110
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready48.2%
n=110
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
48.2% · n=110
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready48.0%
n=50
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready49.1%
n=57
as of Oct 18
playoffs
Ready33.3%
n=3
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Qb Out”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (48.2% · n=110).
Famous call: LV @ PHI — spread (48.3%, hit).
- Graded claims
- 114
- Hit · Brier
- 48.2% · 0.250
- Lift vs break-even
- -4.2 pts
- CLV when followed
- +0.3
- By regime
- early 48.0% · late 49.1% · playoffs 33.3%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 48.0% | 50 |
| 10-18 | 49.1% | 57 |
| playoffs | 33.3% | 3 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=110 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ TB | spread | 47.5% | hit |
| BAL @ CLE | spread | 47.5% | hit |
| TB @ DAL | spread | 48.7% | miss |
| BAL @ ATL | spread | 48.7% | miss |
| WAS @ PHI | spread | 48.3% | miss |
| KC @ LV | spread | 48.3% | miss |
| DET @ MIN | spread | 48.3% | miss |
| DAL @ WAS | spread | 48.3% | miss |
| WAS @ NYG | spread | 48.3% | miss |
| LV @ PHI | spread | 48.3% | hit |
Scoreboard
46.4%
n=113 · listed, not yet ranked (n < 300)
Last 300 games
46.4%
n=113 · listed, not yet ranked (n < 300)
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ TB | spread · away | 100% | homeQbOut | win |
| PIT @ TB | spread · away | 100% | homeQbOut | win |
| BAL @ CLE | spread · home | 100% | awayQbOut | win |
| BAL @ CLE | spread · home | 100% | awayQbOut | win |
| BAL @ ATL | spread · home | 100% | awayQbOut | loss |
| BAL @ ATL | spread · home | 100% | awayQbOut | loss |
| TB @ DAL | spread · home | 100% | awayQbOut | loss |
| TB @ DAL | spread · home | 100% | awayQbOut | loss |
| WAS @ PHI | spread · home | 100% | awayQbOut | loss |
| KC @ LV | spread · away | 100% | homeQbOut | loss |