Angles · look-through
Primetime Dog
as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready53.9%
n=427
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready52.7%
n=300
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
53.9% · n=427
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready54.7%
n=214
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready53.6%
n=181
as of Oct 18
playoffs
Ready51.5%
n=33
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Primetime Dog”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (53.9% · n=427).
Famous call: SEA @ DEN — spread (53.9%, hit).
- Graded claims
- 436
- Hit · Brier
- 54.6% · 0.248
- Lift vs break-even
- +2.2 pts
- CLV when followed
- -0.1
- By regime
- early 54.7% · late 53.6% · playoffs 51.5%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- stable
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 54.7% | 214 |
| 10-18 | 53.6% | 181 |
| playoffs | 51.5% | 33 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=427 · as of Oct 18, 6:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ DEN | spread | 53.9% | hit |
| TB @ DAL | spread | 53.6% | hit |
| BUF @ LA | spread | 53.7% | hit |
| BAL @ ATL | spread | 53.6% | miss |
| PIT @ CLE | spread | 53.0% | hit |
| DET @ CAR | spread | 53.2% | hit |
| ATL @ NO | spread | 53.4% | hit |
| PHI @ CHI | spread | 53.0% | hit |
| LA @ DEN | spread | 52.8% | hit |
| ATL @ GB | spread | 52.7% | hit |
Scoreboard
54.6%
n=444 · #3 of 7 ranked
Last 300 games
52.9%
n=300 · #5 of 7 ranked
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ SEA | spread · away | 100% | primetime, spreadClose |
| NE @ CHI | spread · away | 100% | primetime, spreadClose |
| NE @ CHI | spread · away | 100% | primetime, spreadClose |
| KC @ SEA | spread · away | 100% | primetime, spreadClose |
| DAL @ PHI | spread · home | 100% | primetime, spreadClose |
| DAL @ PHI | spread · away | 100% | primetime, spreadClose |
| WAS @ SF | spread · away | 100% | primetime, spreadClose |
| WAS @ SF | spread · away | 100% | primetime, spreadClose |
| DAL @ GB | spread · away | 100% | primetime, spreadClose |
| DAL @ GB | spread · away | 100% | primetime, spreadClose |