Angles · look-through
Prime Time Under
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready55.4%
n=428
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready55.0%
n=300
as of Oct 18
best market
Readytotal
55.4% · n=428
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready57.9%
n=216
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready52.5%
n=181
as of Oct 18
playoffs
Ready53.1%
n=32
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Prime Time Under”
The tell
total
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
total (55.4% · n=428).
Famous call: SEA @ NE — total (55.9%, hit).
- Graded claims
- 437
- Hit · Brier
- 54.9% · 0.247
- Lift vs break-even
- +2.5 pts
- CLV when followed
- -0.2
- By regime
- early 57.9% · late 52.5% · playoffs 53.1%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- stable
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 57.9% | 216 |
| 10-18 | 52.5% | 181 |
| playoffs | 53.1% | 32 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=428 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- total
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ DEN | total | 54.2% | hit |
| TB @ DAL | total | 54.5% | hit |
| BUF @ LA | total | 54.5% | miss |
| BAL @ ATL | total | 54.5% | miss |
| PIT @ CLE | total | 55.2% | miss |
| DET @ CAR | total | 54.9% | miss |
| ATL @ NO | total | 54.7% | miss |
| PHI @ CHI | total | 55.0% | hit |
| LA @ DEN | total | 55.2% | miss |
| ATL @ GB | total | 55.3% | miss |
Scoreboard
54.9%
n=444 · #2 of 7 ranked
Last 300 games
54.1%
n=300 · #2 of 7 ranked
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ SEA | total · under | 100% | primetime |
| NE @ CHI | total · under | 100% | primetime |
| KC @ SEA | total · under | 100% | primetime |
| NE @ CHI | total · under | 100% | primetime |
| DAL @ PHI | total · under | 100% | primetime |
| DAL @ PHI | total · under | 100% | primetime |
| WAS @ SF | total · under | 100% | primetime |
| WAS @ SF | total · under | 100% | primetime |
| DAL @ GB | total · under | 100% | primetime |
| DAL @ GB | total · under | 100% | primetime |