Angles · look-through
Line Value
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready52.5%
n=790
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready54.0%
n=300
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
52.5% · n=790
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready55.1%
n=410
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready49.0%
n=351
as of Oct 18
playoffs
Ready56.3%
n=32
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Line Value”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (52.5% · n=790).
Famous call: TEN @ IND — spread (52.8%, hit).
- Graded claims
- 808
- Hit · Brier
- 53.1% · 0.249
- Lift vs break-even
- +0.7 pts
- CLV when followed
- +0.1
- By regime
- early 55.1% · late 49.0% · playoffs 56.3%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- stable
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 55.1% | 410 |
| 10-18 | 49.0% | 351 |
| playoffs | 56.3% | 32 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=790 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ IND | spread | 52.8% | hit |
| SEA @ DEN | spread | 52.7% | hit |
| PIT @ TB | spread | 52.8% | miss |
| NYJ @ NE | spread | 52.8% | hit |
| NO @ NYG | spread | 52.8% | hit |
| HOU @ JAX | spread | 52.8% | hit |
| CHI @ ATL | spread | 52.7% | miss |
| CAR @ PHI | spread | 52.8% | miss |
| BAL @ CLE | spread | 52.8% | hit |
| TB @ DAL | spread | 52.5% | hit |
Scoreboard
52.8%
n=805 · #4 of 7 ranked
Last 300 games
53.4%
n=300 · #3 of 7 ranked
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ CAR | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| LA @ LV | spread · home | 100% | spreadClose |
| NYG @ HOU | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| KC @ SEA | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| MIA @ NYJ | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| LA @ LV | spread · home | 100% | spreadClose |
| GB @ DET | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| CIN @ BAL | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| CIN @ BAL | spread · away | 100% | spreadClose |
| DEN @ ARI | spread · home | 100% | spreadClose |