Angles · look-through
Ats Streak Regression
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready51.5%
n=835
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready50.3%
n=300
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
51.5% · n=835
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready54.4%
n=417
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready48.8%
n=377
as of Oct 18
playoffs
Ready47.7%
n=44
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Ats Streak Regression”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (51.5% · n=835).
Famous call: SEA @ DEN — spread (51.7%, hit).
- Graded claims
- 863
- Hit · Brier
- 51.6% · 0.250
- Lift vs break-even
- -0.8 pts
- CLV when followed
- +0.5
- By regime
- early 54.4% · late 48.8% · playoffs 47.7%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- stable
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 54.4% | 417 |
| 10-18 | 48.8% | 377 |
| playoffs | 47.7% | 44 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=835 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ IND | spread | 50.7% | hit |
| SEA @ DEN | spread | 51.7% | hit |
| PIT @ TB | spread | 50.7% | miss |
| NYJ @ NE | spread | 51.7% | hit |
| NO @ NYG | spread | 51.7% | miss |
| HOU @ JAX | spread | 50.7% | hit |
| CAR @ PHI | spread | 50.7% | miss |
| BAL @ CLE | spread | 50.7% | miss |
| TB @ DAL | spread | 50.7% | hit |
| SF @ SEA | spread | 51.7% | hit |
Scoreboard
51.8%
n=877 · #5 of 7 ranked
Last 300 games
51.4%
n=300 · #6 of 7 ranked
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ SEA | spread · home | 100% | atsStreakHome | pending |
| PIT @ NO | spread · home | 100% | atsStreakHome | pending |
| NYG @ HOU | spread · home | 100% | atsStreakAway | pending |
| NYG @ HOU | spread · home | 100% | atsStreakAway | pending |
| KC @ SEA | spread · home | 100% | atsStreakHome | pending |
| PIT @ NO | spread · home | 100% | atsStreakHome | pending |
| LAC @ KC | spread · away | 100% | atsStreakAway | pending |
| LAC @ KC | spread · away | 100% | atsStreakAway | pending |
| DEN @ LAC | spread · home | 100% | atsStreakHome | loss |
| DEN @ LAC | spread · home | 100% | atsStreakHome | loss |