Updated Sep 7, 2026 · Week 1 board.
Green Bay at Minnesota: the board right now
Kickoff is 4:25 p.m. ET, Sep 13. Minnesota is home and favored. Pinnacle has the Vikings at −1.
DraftKings and Bovada both have them at −1.5. The total is 46 on Pinnacle, 46.5 on DraftKings and Bovada. The Minnesota moneyline runs from −121 at Pinnacle to −130 at Bovada. Green Bay runs from +102 at DraftKings to +110 at Bovada.
The half point between Pinnacle's −1 and the other two at −1.5 is small, and it is real disagreement rather than a stale reading. Pinnacle was last checked at 4:52 p.m. ET, Sep 7. The other two were checked at 6:07 p.m.
ET the same day, about an hour later.
Our own pick engine's published take
Our published number on this spread was captured Aug 21 at 1:31 p.m. ET. Line 1.5, home side, our number 1.94. The edge, our number set against the market's, is 0.44.
Confidence sits at 0.5615, the chance our own pick engine puts on being right. Recommended stake, the slice of a bankroll to risk, is 2.86% at −102. On the total we have the under at 45.5, our number 42.53, an edge of −2.97, confidence 0.6757, with the recommended stake capped at the full 5%. On the moneyline we have Minnesota at 0.55, an edge of 0.05, confidence 0.5537, recommended stake 0.68%.
All of that describes the market and our own read of the game. None of it has been graded yet, and the full record sits below.
Six Packers with a number, one without, and two who left town
Seven Green Bay players are drafted on the Week 1 projection board, and six of them carry a figure. Points here are PPR. Josh Jacobs is the seventh; the board holds nothing usable for him this week, so no figure for him appears anywhere here. Undrafted names carry figures on that board too.
The best Green Bay one is Chris Brooks at 7.59, the highest-projected undrafted back on the whole board, and he sits outside the table below because that table holds the drafted six. Two more names this page used to list as Packers are not Packers on that board at all. Romeo Doubs is in New England and Dontayvion Wicks is in Philadelphia, and both are out of the table below for that reason rather than any other.
| Player | Team | Pos | Week 1 projected pts (PPR) | Board rank | ADP | FantasyPros consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 14.87 | 23 | 140.1 | QB18 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | RB | 12.58 | 25 | 115.6 | none |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 10.92 | 33 | 56.4 | none |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | 10.91 | 34 | 102.9 | none |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 10.04 | 42 | 88.9 | none |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 8.98 | 14 | 103.8 | TE7 |
Jordan Love is the name to take out of here. Twenty-third among quarterbacks on 14.87 projected points, and his average pick is 140.1, which is the twelfth round of a twelve-team league and change. Tucker Kraft is the other one worth a look: fourteenth among tight ends on 8.98, drafted 103.8, and FantasyPros had him at TE7 before any of this. He is also flagged questionable, so read the Friday report before you count on him.
Further down, MarShawn Lloyd is the surprise. He goes around pick 116 and the board files him twenty-fifth among running backs on 12.58, which is the second-best Green Bay figure on the page and better than three receivers drafted ahead of him. Christian Watson at 10.92 and Matthew Golden at 10.91 are separated by a hundredth of a point and by forty-six spots of draft position, so take the cheaper one. Nothing here is a lineup lock.
All of it is a real read, which this page did not have a week ago.
What that means for reading this game
With no number from us on the Packers offense, the closest grounded read on how Green Bay's attack is priced this week is the game-level market. A total of 46 to 46.5, which lands in the middle of the 16-game Week 1 board, and a Vikings-favored spread of 1 to 1.5, one of the tighter lines on the slate. That is a market read and not a player-level one, and the difference matters the moment you start building a Green Bay stack instead of just betting the game.
What the Number Says
Three books split by half a point about who is favored, Pinnacle at −1 against DraftKings and Bovada at −1.5. Small in absolute terms, real in market terms, and it means this line is worth shopping before you bet rather than taking whatever loads first. Our own published edge on the spread is a modest 0.44 points, home side. On offense the figure is Jordan Love at 140.1, twenty-third among quarterbacks and drafted like a backup, which is the only Green Bay price on this page a drafter can beat.
Kraft's questionable flag is what changes the rest of it. Re-check the spread before kickoff too, because that half-point gap between books can close or widen either way. The full 16-game Week 1 board, all three books, lives at /odds. Our published spread, total and moneyline picks for every Week 1 game are at /picks/nfl.
Our Week 1 fantasy numbers, empty as they are for Green Bay, sit at /fantasy/nfl/rankings, and Sunday's player-prop board is /player-props?sport=nfl. Two sibling pages run the same numbers and the same standard. Detroit's page, where four skill players do carry a projection from us, and Houston's page.
