Angles · look-through
Total Key Number
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready54.5%
n=55
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready54.5%
n=55
as of Oct 18
best market
Readytotal
54.5% · n=55
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready54.5%
n=55
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Total Key Number”
The tell
total
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
total (54.5% · n=55).
Famous call: CHI @ ATL — total (50.0%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 55
- Hit · Brier
- 54.5% · 0.257
- Lift vs break-even
- +2.1 pts
- CLV when followed
- -0.1
- By regime
- early 54.5% · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 54.5% | 55 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=55 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- total
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ IND | total | 50.0% | miss |
| SEA @ DEN | total | 49.5% | hit |
| PIT @ TB | total | 50.0% | miss |
| NYJ @ NE | total | 49.5% | hit |
| CHI @ ATL | total | 50.0% | hit |
| CAR @ PHI | total | 50.0% | hit |
| BAL @ CLE | total | 50.0% | hit |
| TB @ DAL | total | 48.3% | hit |
| SF @ SEA | total | 48.3% | miss |
| PHI @ JAX | total | 48.3% | hit |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA @ LV | total · over | 100% | totalOpen, totalClose |
| MIA @ NYJ | total · under | 100% | totalOpen, totalClose |
| PIT @ NO | total · over | 100% | totalOpen, totalClose |
| GB @ DET | total · over | 100% | totalOpen, totalClose |
| IND @ MIN | total · under | 100% | totalOpen, totalClose |
| DEN @ ARI | total · over | 100% | totalOpen, totalClose |
| LAC @ KC | total · under | 100% | totalOpen, totalClose |
| WAS @ SF | total · over | 100% | totalOpen, totalClose |
| BUF @ LV | total · over | 100% | totalOpen, totalClose |
| ARI @ LA | total · over | 100% | totalOpen, totalClose |