Angles · look-through
Steam Move
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready53.4%
n=58
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready53.4%
n=58
as of Oct 18
best market
Readymoneyline
100.0% · n=1
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready53.4%
n=58
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Steam Move”
The tell
spread · total · moneyline
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (48.4% · n=31).
Famous call: PHI @ JAX — total (53.8%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 85
- Hit · Brier
- 56.5% · 0.251
- Lift vs break-even
- +4.1 pts
- CLV when followed
- -0.2
- By regime
- early 53.4% · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 53.4% | 58 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=58 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
- total
- moneyline
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ IND | spread | 52.3% | miss |
| SEA @ DEN | total | 52.0% | hit |
| PIT @ TB | total | 52.3% | miss |
| NYJ @ NE | spread | 52.3% | hit |
| NO @ NYG | spread | 52.3% | hit |
| HOU @ JAX | spread | 52.3% | miss |
| CHI @ ATL | spread | 52.3% | miss |
| CAR @ PHI | spread | 52.3% | hit |
| BAL @ CLE | total | 52.3% | hit |
| TB @ DAL | spread | 53.8% | miss |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ CAR | spread · home | 100% | spreadOpen, spreadClose, totalOpen, totalClose, moneylineHomeClose |
| MIA @ NYJ | total · under | 100% | spreadOpen, spreadClose, totalOpen, totalClose, moneylineHomeClose |
| PIT @ NO | total · over | 100% | spreadOpen, spreadClose, totalOpen, totalClose, moneylineHomeClose |
| MIA @ NYJ | spread · home | 100% | spreadOpen, spreadClose, totalOpen, totalClose, moneylineHomeClose |
| NYG @ HOU | spread · home | 100% | spreadOpen, spreadClose, totalOpen, totalClose, moneylineHomeClose |
| CLE @ TEN | total · under | 100% | spreadOpen, spreadClose, totalOpen, totalClose, moneylineHomeClose |
| IND @ MIN | total · under | 100% | spreadOpen, spreadClose, totalOpen, totalClose, moneylineHomeClose |
| DAL @ PHI | spread · away | 100% | spreadOpen, spreadClose, totalOpen, totalClose |
| CLE @ TEN | spread · away | 100% | spreadOpen, spreadClose, totalOpen, totalClose, moneylineHomeClose |
| IND @ MIN | spread · home | 100% | spreadOpen, spreadClose, totalOpen, totalClose, moneylineHomeClose |