Angles · look-through
Starters Out
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready42.9%
n=7
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready42.9%
n=7
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
42.9% · n=7
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready50.0%
n=6
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready0.0%
n=1
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Starters Out”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (42.9% · n=7).
Famous call: NYG @ SF — spread (48.4%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 7
- Hit · Brier
- 42.9% · 0.248
- Lift vs break-even
- -9.5 pts
- CLV when followed
- —
- By regime
- early 50.0% · late 0.0% · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 50.0% | 6 |
| 10-18 | 0.0% | 1 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=7 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC @ NE | spread | 48.4% | miss |
| LV @ CHI | spread | 48.4% | miss |
| NYG @ SF | spread | 48.4% | hit |
| SF @ NYG | spread | 48.4% | miss |
| PHI @ WAS | spread | 48.4% | hit |
| NO @ CHI | spread | 48.4% | miss |
| DET @ PHI | spread | 48.4% | hit |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC @ NE | spread · home | 100% | homeStartersOutCount, awayStartersOutCount | loss |
| LV @ CHI | spread · away | 100% | homeStartersOutCount, awayStartersOutCount | loss |
| NYG @ SF | spread · home | 100% | homeStartersOutCount, awayStartersOutCount | win |
| SF @ NYG | spread · home | 100% | homeStartersOutCount, awayStartersOutCount | loss |
| PHI @ WAS | spread · home | 100% | homeStartersOutCount, awayStartersOutCount | win |
| NO @ CHI | spread · home | 100% | homeStartersOutCount, awayStartersOutCount | loss |
| DET @ PHI | spread · away | 100% | homeStartersOutCount, awayStartersOutCount | win |