Angles · look-through
Splits Divergence
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready41.2%
n=34
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready41.2%
n=34
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
41.2% · n=34
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready41.2%
n=34
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Splits Divergence”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (41.2% · n=34).
Famous call: GB @ NYJ — spread (50.0%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 51
- Hit · Brier
- 41.2% · 0.248
- Lift vs break-even
- -11.2 pts
- CLV when followed
- -0.1
- By regime
- early 41.2% · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 41.2% | 34 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=34 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ ATL | spread | 47.4% | miss |
| BAL @ CLE | spread | 47.4% | miss |
| TB @ DAL | spread | 49.4% | hit |
| PHI @ JAX | spread | 49.4% | hit |
| MIN @ NO | spread | 49.4% | miss |
| DET @ ARI | spread | 49.4% | miss |
| DEN @ LAC | spread | 49.4% | miss |
| BUF @ LA | spread | 49.4% | miss |
| TEN @ BAL | spread | 49.3% | miss |
| NE @ BUF | spread | 49.3% | miss |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ LA | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome, moneyPctHome | pending |
| BUF @ LV | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, moneyPctHome | pending |
| BUF @ LV | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, moneyPctHome | pending |
| ARI @ LA | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome, moneyPctHome | pending |
| CHI @ ATL | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, moneyPctHome | loss |
| CHI @ ATL | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, moneyPctHome | loss |
| WAS @ SF | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, moneyPctHome | pending |
| WAS @ SF | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, moneyPctHome | pending |
| BAL @ CLE | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome, moneyPctHome | loss |
| BAL @ CLE | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome, moneyPctHome | loss |