Angles · look-through
Reverse Line Move
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready78.6%
n=14
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready78.6%
n=14
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
78.6% · n=14
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready78.6%
n=14
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Reverse Line Move”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (78.6% · n=14).
Famous call: CLE @ NYJ — spread (55.7%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 14
- Hit · Brier
- 78.6% · 0.235
- Lift vs break-even
- +26.2 pts
- CLV when followed
- +0.0
- By regime
- early 78.6% · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 78.6% | 14 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=14 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ @ NE | spread | 54.7% | hit |
| NO @ NYG | spread | 54.7% | hit |
| BAL @ CLE | spread | 54.7% | hit |
| NYG @ WAS | spread | 55.7% | miss |
| DET @ ARI | spread | 55.7% | miss |
| CLE @ NYJ | spread | 55.7% | hit |
| IND @ WAS | spread | 55.0% | hit |
| NE @ JAX | spread | 51.8% | hit |
| LA @ DEN | spread | 54.2% | hit |
| CAR @ CLE | spread | 51.8% | hit |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF @ LV | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, spreadOpen, spreadClose | pending |
| NYJ @ NE | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome, spreadOpen, spreadClose | win |
| ARI @ LA | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome, spreadOpen, spreadClose | pending |
| BAL @ CLE | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, spreadOpen, spreadClose | win |
| NO @ NYG | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome, spreadOpen, spreadClose | win |
| NYG @ WAS | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, spreadOpen, spreadClose | loss |
| CLE @ NYJ | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, spreadOpen, spreadClose | win |
| DET @ ARI | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, spreadOpen, spreadClose | loss |
| IND @ WAS | spread · away | 100% | ticketsPctHome, spreadOpen, spreadClose | win |
| LA @ DEN | spread · home | 100% | ticketsPctHome, spreadOpen, spreadClose | win |