Angles · look-through
Modeler
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready52.7%
n=74
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready52.7%
n=74
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyedge-direction
52.7% · n=74
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready52.7%
n=74
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Our model’s edge and why: top features, uncertainty, ensemble disagreement.”
The tell
edge-direction
Fires tonight on 10 games.
Blind spot
edge-direction (52.7% · n=74).
Famous call: CIN @ PIT — edge-direction (53.3%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 74
- Hit · Brier
- 52.7% · 0.248
- Lift vs break-even
- +0.3 pts
- CLV when followed
- —
- By regime
- early 52.7% · late — · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 52.7% | 74 |
| 10-18 | — | 0 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=74 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- edge-direction
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ DEN | edge-direction | 51.6% | hit |
| NYG @ WAS | edge-direction | 51.6% | hit |
| BUF @ LA | edge-direction | 51.6% | hit |
| SF @ SEA | edge-direction | 50.9% | miss |
| PHI @ JAX | edge-direction | 51.1% | hit |
| IND @ PIT | edge-direction | 50.4% | hit |
| MIN @ NO | edge-direction | 52.5% | hit |
| LV @ NE | edge-direction | 53.0% | hit |
| HOU @ TEN | edge-direction | 49.6% | miss |
| DET @ ARI | edge-direction | 51.5% | miss |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Result |
|---|---|---|
| LAC @ SEA | spread · home | push |
| MIA @ MIN | spread · away | win |
| JAX @ CIN | spread · away | win |
| NYJ @ CHI | spread · away | loss |
| NE @ BUF | spread · away | win |
| TEN @ BAL | spread · away | win |
| GB @ TB | spread · home | push |
| LA @ PHI | spread · home | loss |
| ARI @ NYG | spread · away | loss |
| DAL @ HOU | spread · home | loss |