Angles · look-through
Ml Value Dog
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready30.8%
n=13
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready30.8%
n=13
as of Oct 18
best market
Readymoneyline
30.8% · n=13
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready0.0%
n=9
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready100.0%
n=4
as of Oct 18
playoffs
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Ml Value Dog”
The tell
moneyline
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
moneyline (30.8% · n=13).
Famous call: WAS @ MIN — moneyline (50.0%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 13
- Hit · Brier
- 30.8% · 0.246
- Lift vs break-even
- -21.6 pts
- CLV when followed
- -0.0
- By regime
- early 0.0% · late 100.0% · playoffs —
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 10-18 | 100.0% | 4 |
| playoffs | — | 0 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=13 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- moneyline
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO @ NYG | moneyline | 48.3% | miss |
| CHI @ ATL | moneyline | 48.3% | miss |
| CAR @ PHI | moneyline | 48.3% | miss |
| IND @ WAS | moneyline | 49.2% | miss |
| BUF @ HOU | moneyline | 50.0% | miss |
| WAS @ MIN | moneyline | 50.0% | hit |
| JAX @ HOU | moneyline | 50.0% | hit |
| SEA @ JAX | moneyline | 50.0% | miss |
| TB @ ATL | moneyline | 50.0% | miss |
| MIN @ CHI | moneyline | 50.0% | miss |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO @ NYG | moneyline · home | 100% | spreadClose, moneylineHomeClose | loss |
| CHI @ ATL | moneyline · home | 100% | spreadClose, moneylineHomeClose | loss |
| CAR @ PHI | moneyline · home | 100% | spreadClose, moneylineHomeClose | loss |
| IND @ WAS | moneyline · home | 100% | spreadClose, moneylineHomeClose | loss |
| BUF @ HOU | moneyline · home | 100% | spreadClose, moneylineHomeClose | loss |
| WAS @ MIN | moneyline · home | 100% | spreadClose, moneylineHomeClose | win |
| JAX @ HOU | moneyline · home | 100% | spreadClose, moneylineHomeClose | win |
| SEA @ JAX | moneyline · home | 100% | spreadClose, moneylineHomeClose | loss |
| TB @ ATL | moneyline · home | 100% | spreadClose, moneylineHomeClose | loss |
| MIN @ CHI | moneyline · home | 100% | spreadClose, moneylineHomeClose | loss |