Angles · look-through
Home Dog Primetime
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready54.8%
n=166
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready54.8%
n=166
as of Oct 18
best market
Readyspread
54.8% · n=166
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
Ready53.8%
n=80
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready53.3%
n=75
as of Oct 18
playoffs
Ready72.7%
n=11
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Home Dog Primetime”
The tell
spread
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
spread (54.8% · n=166).
Famous call: DET @ CAR — spread (54.0%, hit).
- Graded claims
- 171
- Hit · Brier
- 55.6% · 0.247
- Lift vs break-even
- +3.2 pts
- CLV when followed
- +0.5
- By regime
- early 53.8% · late 53.3% · playoffs 72.7%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 53.8% | 80 |
| 10-18 | 53.3% | 75 |
| playoffs | 72.7% | 11 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=166 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- spread
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ DEN | spread | 53.9% | hit |
| BAL @ ATL | spread | 54.4% | miss |
| PIT @ CLE | spread | 53.5% | hit |
| DET @ CAR | spread | 54.0% | hit |
| PHI @ CHI | spread | 53.3% | hit |
| LA @ DEN | spread | 52.9% | hit |
| DAL @ NYG | spread | 52.6% | hit |
| SEA @ NE | spread | 53.3% | miss |
| LA @ CHI | spread | 53.3% | hit |
| HOU @ PIT | spread | 53.3% | miss |
Scoreboard
55.6%
n=174 · listed, not yet ranked (n < 300)
Last 300 games
55.6%
n=174 · listed, not yet ranked (n < 300)
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ PHI | spread · home | 100% | primetime, spreadClose | pending |
| SEA @ DEN | spread · home | 100% | primetime, spreadClose | win |
| SEA @ DEN | spread · home | 100% | primetime, spreadClose | win |
| DAL @ GB | spread · home | 100% | primetime, spreadClose | pending |
| BAL @ ATL | spread · home | 100% | primetime, spreadClose | loss |
| BAL @ ATL | spread · home | 100% | primetime, spreadClose | loss |
| DET @ CAR | spread · home | 100% | primetime, spreadClose | win |
| DET @ CAR | spread · home | 100% | primetime, spreadClose | win |
| PIT @ CLE | spread · home | 100% | primetime, spreadClose | win |
| PIT @ CLE | spread · home | 100% | primetime, spreadClose | win |