Angles · look-through
Cold Weather Late Season Total
as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
hit rate (all)
Ready47.6%
n=84
as of Oct 18
trailing 300
Ready47.6%
n=84
as of Oct 18
best market
Readytotal
47.6% · n=84
as of Oct 18
weeks 1-9
—
n=0
as of Oct 18
weeks 10-18
Ready46.8%
n=62
as of Oct 18
playoffs
Ready50.0%
n=22
as of Oct 18
Angle card · what every angle carries
“Cold Weather Late Season Total”
The tell
total
Fires tonight on 0 games.
Blind spot
total (47.6% · n=84).
Famous call: NE @ DEN — total (48.2%, hit).
Rolling hit rate needs 100 graded claims — not there yet.
- Graded claims
- 84
- Hit · Brier
- 47.6% · 0.249
- Lift vs break-even
- -4.8 pts
- CLV when followed
- —
- By regime
- early — · late 46.8% · playoffs 50.0%
- Drift (trailing 300)
- — (needs 300 graded)
- Rating
- Not rated yet
- Used in other angles
- None yet
Counts differ by cohort: the tiles above use decided claims (wins and losses) in each window, while Graded claims counts every graded ledger row, pushes included. Lift here is measured against the −110 break-even; the card on /lenses measures it against the other lenses.
Record by part of the season
| Weeks | Hit rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | — | 0 |
| 10-18 | 46.8% | 62 |
| playoffs | 50.0% | 22 |
Calibration
dot size = n; dashed = perfect calibration · n=84 · as of Oct 18, 5:25 PM ET
Tells it reads
- total
Last graded calls
| Game | Call | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ DEN | total | 48.2% | hit |
| LA @ CHI | total | 48.2% | hit |
| HOU @ PIT | total | 48.2% | hit |
| GB @ CHI | total | 48.2% | miss |
| NYJ @ BUF | total | 48.2% | miss |
| MIA @ NE | total | 48.2% | miss |
| BAL @ PIT | total | 48.2% | miss |
| NE @ NYJ | total | 48.2% | miss |
| BUF @ CLE | total | 48.2% | miss |
| WAS @ NYG | total | 48.2% | miss |
Scoreboard
Not enough graded games yet.
Last 300 games
Not enough graded games yet.
This season
Not enough graded games yet.
Reliability
Brier / ECE per window, read off the scoreboard's own rows — the confidence-vs-observed curve above (from the hourly update) is a separate reading.
Record by conditions
Not enough graded games to compare conditions yet (Last 300 games).
Recent calls
| Game | Market / side | Percentile | Details | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ DEN | total · under | 100% | tempF, week | win |
| LA @ CHI | total · under | 100% | tempF, week | win |
| HOU @ PIT | total · under | 100% | tempF, week | win |
| GB @ CHI | total · under | 100% | tempF, week | loss |
| NYJ @ BUF | total · under | 100% | tempF, week | loss |
| MIA @ NE | total · under | 100% | tempF, week | loss |
| BAL @ PIT | total · under | 100% | tempF, week | loss |
| NE @ NYJ | total · under | 100% | tempF, week | loss |
| BUF @ CLE | total · under | 100% | tempF, week | loss |
| WAS @ NYG | total · under | 100% | tempF, week | loss |