Anti-Tout Science Desk
Trout Tout Track real tout accuracy vs our public model picks.
Per-source pick-accuracy leaderboard. Sample-size shrunk (Bayesian), 95% confidence intervals. Negative lift means the source's calls have underperformed the sport-position baseline — that's a trout. Fade it.
Building sample…
No source-accuracy data yet for this sport/window. The first cron tick that pairs mentions with player-game outcomes will populate this leaderboard. Check back in a few hours.
Sources making the boldest player calls (high-confidence + strong sentiment, last 90d). Hot-take index sums signed conviction; red = bullish-loaded, green = contrarian/bearish.
1 POD 49ers Rush Podcast with John Chapman 199 +8129
2 POD PFT Live with Mike Florio 190 +3145
3 POD Big Blue Kickoff Live | New York Giants 157 +5377
4 POD Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast 150 +4846
5 POD Go Birds! 135 +3625
6 POD NFL Talk | New York Giants 69 +2885
7 POD Locked On Saints - Daily Podcast On The New Orleans Saints 60 +3423
8 POD Giants Nation Show (Giants Podcast) 55 +564
9 NEW Pro Football Focus 51 +2397
10 POD 6 Rings and Football Things 45 +599
11 POD NFL Talk | New Orleans Saints 35 +2003
12 POD Locked On Giants - Daily Podcast On The New York Giants 35 +1527
13 POD Big Blue Banter: A New York Giants Football Podcast 34 +735
14 POD NFL Talk | New York Jets 32 +1480
15 POD Talkin’ Giants (Giants Podcast) 28 +414
16 NEW SB Nation NFL 25 +1075
17 NEW Windy City Gridiron (CHI) 24 +50
18 POD The Ringer's Philly Special 22 +1159
19 POD New York, New York with John Jastremski 21 -184
20 POD Breaking Big Blue with Jordan Raanan 15 +532
What the columns mean
- Lift
- Shrunk point estimate of how much better (or worse) the source's calls performed vs the sport-position baseline. Positive = the source helped, negative = trout.
- Hit rate
- Win % on explicit picks, excluding pushes. 52.4% is breakeven vs -110 juice.
- 95% CI
- Confidence interval around the point estimate. Wide bars = thin sample; thin bars crossing 0 (or 50%) = the source is statistically indistinguishable from noise.
- n
- Sample size — observations contributing to the estimate. n < 10 is flagged as a small sample (faded CI bar).
- CLV
- Closing-line value — how much the line moved after the source's pick, in the source's direction (avg %). The strongest long-run skill signal.