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Blog and learning
Find a published guide, inspect its sources, and put the idea into practice.
Articles
- Kalshi Sports Event Contracts vs Sportsbooks (2026)Kalshi sports betting in 2026: event contracts, YES/NO pricing, post-Third-Circuit status, and where they beat traditional books on vig.
- Kelly Criterion With a Loss Floor: A Safer Bankroll HeuristicKelly criterion loss floor staking: fractional Kelly with a drawdown cap, worked examples at +200, -120, -110, plus a daily kill-switch.
- How a Deterministic Live-Betting Sim Works (Replayable Seeds)How a deterministic live betting simulator works: seeded play-by-play, replayable rounds, and coin pools that settle byte-identically every replay.
- NCAA Women's Basketball Totals Model: A Browser RecipeBuild an NCAA WBB totals model in the browser using pace, eFG%, and conference splits — with UConn, Iowa, LSU, and USC worked examples.
- NGS Speed and Route Trees as WR Prop FeaturesUse Next Gen Stats max speed and BDB route trees as WR prop features. 21+ mph thresholds, route-mix encoding, target-shadow math, and prop-board impact.
- Open-Source Betting Model Release Notes (Cornerstone)Monthly release notes for our open-source TF.js betting models. Brier vs Vegas close, model cards, changelog, and remixable workshop links.
- Parimutuel Sports Betting Explained (Beyond Horse Racing)Parimutuel sports betting explained: how pool-based payout math works, why it differs from fixed-odds books, and where it appears beyond horse racing.
- Pick6 vs PrizePicks vs Underdog: A Cross-Book EV CalculatorA pickem expected value calculator for DraftKings Pick6, PrizePicks, and Underdog. Compare payouts leg-by-leg and route every entry to the cheapest book.
- Polymarket / Kalshi Arbitrage: Net-of-Fees TutorialPolymarket Kalshi arbitrage step by step: contract pairing, net-of-fees math, gas considerations, and the realistic windows that actually exist in 2026.
- Pre-Snap Formation Features: A Bettable WalkthroughEngineer pre-snap formation features that move WR yardage props. Receiver alignment, motion-at-snap, RB depth, and the Brier-lift math.
- PrizePicks Flex vs Power Plays: The Math Most Guides SkipPrizePicks flex math worked end-to-end: protected payouts, break-even hit rates, and when Flex actually beats Power Plays on EV.
- The Pyramid Auto-League: Promotion, Relegation, Pack RewardsPyramid fantasy league explained: 32-team tiers, weekly auto-sims, promotion/relegation math, pack rewards, onboarding flow.
- A Reproducible Backtest Checklist Bettors Actually FollowA 12-point checklist to tell a real edge from a hot streak: test past seasons, price after the juice, charge for the line you miss, prove it holds.
- A Significant Strikes Prop Model With Stylistic AdjustmentsBuild a UFC significant-strikes prop model in the browser. Per-15-minute rates, stylistic adjustments, takedown rate, and orthodox vs southpaw effects.
- Stacking Two Sports Models Without Writing PythonA click-driven tutorial for stacking two sports betting models in the browser. Meta-learner, calibration, Brier comparison, and ensemble weights.
- Build an NFL Spread Model in TensorFlow.js From ScratchA TensorFlow.js NFL betting model tutorial: define the architecture, prep the data, train in the browser, and evaluate against the closing spread.
- Transfer Portal → Team Total Deltas: A CFB Bettor's GuideQuantify how CFB transfer portal moves shift team totals. Recent QB transfers, methodology, and how to find futures and weekly edges.
- A UFC Round-Simulation Brick You Can RemixBuild a UFC round-by-round Monte Carlo simulator in the browser. Style matchups, takedown rate, finish probability, and round-prop edges.
Answers, short and sourced
- Are sports betting models worth paying for?
Sports betting models are worth paying for only if they show credible proof of beating no-vig closing prices. Pay for transparent edge, not confident picks, glossy records, or a feed that hides its math.
- Are free betting calculators accurate?
Free betting calculators are accurate when they use the correct formulas. No-vig, Kelly, and parlay EV math is deterministic, so the real edge comes from your probability inputs, not a paid calculator wrapper.
- How accurate are model-based NFL picks?
Model-based NFL picks are accurate when they beat break-even over time, but calibration and CLV matter more than a single win rate; about 52.4% ATS breaks even at -110.
Pundit ledger
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Hit rate 62.3% on 56 graded calls, 95% range 60 to 83%.
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Hit rate 58.4% on 27 graded calls, 95% range 55 to 87%.
Portland Trail Blazers (Official)
Hit rate 55.7% on 20 graded calls, 95% range 48 to 85%.
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Hit rate 40.0% on 25 graded calls, 95% range 15 to 65%.
Podcasts
- Dexter Henry on The Knicks Challenges To Repeat. Plus, Giants Comeback Falls Short and Jets Struggle In Foxboro
- Eagles Lose Again. Is It Time to Sell? Takeaways With Rich Hofmann!
- SHAKEUP: Giants Quarterback Controversy ERUPTS—Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy Going Forward?
- Saints, Kellen Moore Get Much-Needed Victory That Leaves Questions After Struggle To Close Out Win
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