Closing Line Value Calculator — Did Your Bet Beat the Close?

Closing-line value records a price change

The closing price is the price quoted at market close. Compare it with your bet price for the same selection, line and settlement rules. The difference describes how the price moved. It does not tell you the true chance of winning or what you will earn.

Two ways to measure closing-line value: cents and probability delta

Cents movement: cents = bet_odds − close_odds in American terms (a positive number means you got the better price). When the two prices sit on opposite sides of even money, count each side's distance from even money, because +100 and -100 are the same price: +110 to -130 is 10 + 30 = 40 cents. A bet placed at -110 that closes at -125 represents 15 cents of positive closing-line value. Probability delta: delta = implied(close) − implied(bet). The same bet's implied moved from 52.38% to 55.56% — a +3.18 percentage-point delta. Probability delta is more comparable across odds ranges; cents are easier to read on the bet slip.

Worked example: bet +120 closes at +105

Implied at +120 = 100 / 220 = 45.45%. Implied at +105 = 100 / 205 = 48.78%. Probability delta = +3.33 pp in your favor. Cents movement = 120 − 105 = 15 cents of positive closing-line value. These are two descriptions of the same price change. Neither number is a return on the bet. Record the market and sample size when comparing changes across bets.

FAQ

What is closing-line value and why does it matter? +

Closing-line value compares the price you got with the closing price for the same selection and market. If you bet at +120 and it closes at +105, the price moved 15 cents in your favor. This records a price change. It does not measure your return or establish betting skill.

How do you calculate closing-line value in cents and in probability? +

Two views, same information. Cents movement: bet_odds − closing_odds in American terms when both prices are on the same side of even money (e.g. +120 → +105 = 15 cents of positive closing-line value; -110 → -125 = 15 cents of positive closing-line value). Across even money, +100 and -100 are the same price, so +110 → -130 counts as 40 cents (10 + 30), not 240. Implied-probability delta: implied(close) − implied(bet); your example moves implied from 45.45% to 48.78%, a 3.33 percentage-point gain. Probability delta is the more comparable metric across different odds ranges; cents are easier to read on the bet slip.

What does a positive closing-line comparison show? +

A positive result means your price was better than the closing price under the chosen measure. The close is a market price, not a known true probability. Price movement alone cannot establish an advantage or predict future returns.

Does closing-line value give a profitability threshold? +

This calculator cannot give a profitability threshold. Cents measure price movement, and the same cents change means different probability changes at different odds. Assess results separately using recorded prices, stakes and settled outcomes.

What's the difference between closing-line value and ROI? +

Return on investment measures net return divided by the amount risked, using settled bets. Closing-line value compares the price at placement with the closing price. A positive price comparison does not mean losses will be recovered. Neither measure alone establishes future performance.